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Global base oils exports to Africa remained subdued in May as suppliers continued prioritising term customers over spot cargoes
Nigeria's imports extended their slump, while flows into other markets held up better on steadier term supply
Even secondary suppliers like Argentina and Egypt redirected cargoes elsewhere, while any Red Sea disruption could tighten supply further
Global base oils exports to Africa remained subdued in May as suppliers continued prioritising contract customers, leaving spot buyers increasingly exposed to tighter global supply.
Combined exports into Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa and Kenya held just below 60,000 tonnes in May, broadly unchanged from April but down 14% from a year earlier, according to Eurostat, US Census Bureau, Korea Customs Service, Enterprise Singapore and other government data.
The weakness was concentrated in Nigeria, where exports extended their fall to the second-lowest level in two years.
Shipments to Egypt, Kenya and South Africa held steadier, consistent with suppliers continuing to cover term commitments while pulling back on discretionary spot cargoes.
The pattern reflected tightening availability across the wider market, with lower Middle East exports and reduced premium-grade availability in Europe and the US leaving fewer cargoes free for buyers relying on the spot market.
Key Highlights
· Europe's exports to Africa held broadly steady for a second month despite remaining well below year-earlier levels.
· US shipments recovered from April but stayed well below their typical monthly pace, pointing to limited spot availability.
· Argentina's exports to Nigeria remained paused as cargoes moved to Brazil instead.
· Egypt directed more cargoes to Turkey, moving away from its flows to Nigeria.
· An enquiry for a cargo from India to West Africa, loading in late July, suggested buyers were already looking further afield for additional spot supply.
Market Repercussions
Buyers with term contracts kept getting supply in May. Buyers without one increasingly didn't. That contrast was all the sharper in a year when earlier expectations of rising global supply had encouraged some buyers to rely more on spot cargoes.
The May flows showed the risk in that approach. Markets more dependent on spot purchases found themselves competing with buyers elsewhere for the same limited cargoes.
That risk could deepen if disruption to Middle East shipping persists and extends to the Red Sea region, complicating flows from Asia.
Wider price gaps between Asia and Europe could still attract more Asian cargoes into Africa, though those volumes would face competition from buyers in other regions too.
