Asia’s lube demand is forecast to strengthen in the first half of 2026 as a seasonal pick-up in consumption at the end of the first quarter adds to rising underlying demand.

Total regional consumption is projected to exceed 2.53 million tonnes in the first three months of next year, slightly above the same period this year, according to the Base Oil News short-term outlook.

Demand is then expected to climb to more than 2.60 million tonnes in the second quarter, more than 3% higher than year-earlier levels.

A continuation of India’s strong lubricants demand growth into next year is expected to remain the key driver behind Asia’s rising consumption.  

Any cooling in that market would soften the region’s overall demand trajectory.

The anticipated increase in lubricants consumption is set to coincide with an expected rise in Asia’s base oils production capacity in early 2026.

Regional demand in the first half of next year that matches or exceeds 2025 levels would require these additional supplies to meet requirements.

Any delays to the start-up of the new capacity could leave Asia facing an unusually tight supply-demand balance, a scenario similar or potentially tighter than conditions seen in the first half of this year.