Exports fall to three-month low ahead of shutdown
India's October imports from Saudi Arabia slump to 30-month low
Rising flows from Asia, Europe help offset impact of shutdown
Base oils shipments from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu and Jeddah ports fell to a three-month low in October ahead of scheduled plant-maintenance starting in mid-November.
Combined shipments from the two ports fell to less than 45,000 tonnes in October, provisional shipping data showed.
The volume slipped from more than 55,000 tonnes the previous month and well below the typical 57,000 tonnes/month seen in the first nine months of 2025.
Shipments in November showed signs of holding close to or higher than the October levels, offsetting for now the impact of the plant-shutdown.
The slowdown in October flows had a marked impact on India, whose imports from Saudi Arabia slumped to a 30-month low.
A surge in base oils exports from Asia to the Middle East in September and October, alongside a sharp pick-up in flows from Europe at the end of the third quarter, helped to cushion the supply-gap from Saudi Arabia.
The timing of the shutdown is opportune for markets like Asia and Europe, where a seasonal slowdown in demand at year-end typically triggers a rise in surplus supply.
Saudi Aramco Base Oil expects the ongoing expansion of its Yanbu base oils plant to be 70-75% complete by year-end, with full completion targeted in early 2026.
The completion of the plant-shutdown at year-end, followed by the start-up of the expanded production at Yanbu in 2026, is likely to boost Saudi Arabia’s base oils exports from early next year.
Any such rise in shipments would add to a pick-up in global supply alongside the start-up of new production capacity in India and Singapore.
Why It Matters:
Temporary supply gaps may affect buyers in India and other markets.
Asia and Europe benefit from additional regional flows to Middle East.
Yanbu expansion sets the stage for higher exports in 2026.
