Spain’s lubricant demand rose in October, climbing to its second-highest level since early 2023.

The increase in Spain reinforced signs of a broader recovery across southern Europe, after Italy’s lubricant demand climbed to its highest level in more than three years.

The strength in October raised the prospect that a fragile recovery in European lube consumption, seen in August and September, could extend into the fourth quarter.

Stronger demand contrasted with tighter-than-expected base oils availability in Europe, amid Group I supply disruptions in the region and Group II plant-maintenance activity in the US.

The combination of firmer demand and constrained supply slowed both the pace and scale of the typical year-end build-up in surplus base oils volumes.

Key Highlights

• Spain’s lubricant consumption reached 39,900 tonnes in October, rising 3% year-on-year and increasing for the first time in three months

• October demand was the second-highest monthly level since March 2023, highlighting unusually firm consumption

• Spain recorded its strongest October lubricant demand since 2019, reinforcing signs of sustained demand strength

• Stronger demand in Spain coincided with Italy’s October lubricant consumption rising to its highest level since March 2022

• Spain and Italy’s gains contrasted with a dip in Portugal’s consumption, its first decline in nine months

• Beyond the Mediterranean region, Poland’s lubricant demand edged down 1%, marking its first drop in three months

Market Implications

Stronger demand at the start of the fourth quarter could encourage blenders to maintain higher-than-usual inventories toward year-end.

Firmer demand and a smaller-than-expected base oils surplus carried into early 2026 could ease downward pressure on prices and speed up buyers’ moves to replenish stocks.