Europe’s lube consumption stayed mixed in November, with strong growth in Spain and early signs of recovery in Germany offsetting ongoing weakness in France.

Steadier regional demand could cushion the usual year-end seasonal slowdown in consumption and speed up blenders’ moves to replenish depleted stocks in early 2026.

Key Highlights

·         Spain’s lube consumption rose to more than 35,000 tonnes in November, with the 8% year-on-year increase the largest in eight months.

·         France’s lube demand fell by 2% year-on-year, sliding for the fifth time in six months.

·         Engine oils consumption fell for the first time in three months and industrial oils for the fourth time in five months.

·         Germany’s September lube consumption data released this week showed demand of more than 44,000 tonnes in Europe’s largest lube market, up 6% year-on-year on the back of strong machine oils consumption.

·         The momentum could continue, with industrial production and factory orders rising in October and November, and its truck toll mileage index up in December at its fastest pace since early 2021.

Market Repercussions

An extension of the rise in Germany’s lube demand, alongside sustained growth in Spain, Italy and Portugal, would help offset weakness in other markets like France.

Steadier demand would encourage blenders to maintain higher feedstock inventories.

Tighter-than-usual supply of Group I and Group III base oils in Europe during the fourth quarter could add to that buying interest early this year.