Italy’s November Lube Demand Extends Rise, Signals Firmer Outlook

Italy’s lubricants demand rose for a sixth month in November, underpinned by a rebound in industrial oils consumption and adding to signs of more stable lubricants market in Europe.

Total lubricants consumption of 34,500 tonnes in November rose by 4% year-on-year, Ministry of Ecological Transition data showed.

Italy’s lube consumption is considered a bellwether for Europe’s lubricants market, especially given the earlier release of its data compared with other countries.

The sustained rise in Italy’s lube consumption in the second half of 2025 far outpaced the muted demand seen across the rest of the region.

Even so, it preceded a slight recovery in Europe’s lube consumption in the three months to October following a multi-year contraction.

Key Highlights

·         Italy’s automotive oils consumption rose by 1% year-on-year and for a sixth month in November, even as passenger car motor oil (PCMO) demand fell for the first time in eleven months.

·         Industrial oils consumption rose by 6% year-on-year, extending gains for a second month.

·         The performance broadly mirrored trends in Italy’s manufacturing confidence index, which edged down in December but remained the second-highest level in 21 months.

·         Italy’s lube consumption rose by 4% in the three months to October, outpacing the 0.4% increase in Europe’s lube demand, whose contraction slowed sharply from July.

·         Portugal’s lube consumption rose by 1% year on year in November and for the ninth time in ten months, reinforcing the Mediterranean region’s stronger performance relative to the rest of Europe.

Market Repercussions

Italy’s lube consumption growth in 2025 increasingly showed signs of leading rather than reflecting demand trends elsewhere in Europe.

An extension of that dynamic raised the prospect of steadier lube demand in Europe at the end of last year and into early 2026.

Such expectations could boost blenders’ confidence to hold larger stocks and ease any reluctance to replenish depleted inventories at the start of the year.

Any signs that a year-end build-up of surplus base oils supplies in Europe remained at manageable levels could further support blenders’ comfort with rebuilding their feedstock supplies.