Global premium-grade imports from the Middle East fell to a 16-month low in April as shipments from Qatar, the UAE and Bahrain slumped
US and European imports fell to multi-year lows, while Asia's share of Middle East volumes rose to a six-year high
The drop came ahead of peak demand season, unlike previous lows which reflected seasonal slowdowns or pandemic disruptions
Global imports of premium-grade base oils from the Middle East collapsed in April, with the sharpest impact falling on the US and Europe — the markets least able to absorb it.
Imports from Qatar, the UAE and Bahrain combined fell to less than 105,000 tonnes in April from more than 185,000 tonnes in March, General Administration of Customs, Eurostat, Census Bureau and other government data showed.
The volume, covering imports into the US, Europe and Asia, was the lowest since December 2024 and the second lowest since June 2020.
The timing compounded the impact. Previous lows reflected seasonal weakness or pandemic disruptions. April's drop came ahead of peak demand season.
The regions most reliant on Middle East imports — the US and Europe — saw the largest supply losses, while flows rose to Asia, where alternative sources are closest.
Key Highlights
• US imports fell to their lowest since June 2020, while European imports dropped to their lowest since January 2024.
• Asia's imports rose to a three-month high and accounted for 64% of total imports from the three Middle East suppliers, the highest share since December 2020.
• Imports from Qatar fell to a 16-month low, while UAE shipments dropped below levels seen during the scheduled maintenance period in 2025.
• Bahrain flows fell to a six-month low but held firmer than the other two sources.
Market Repercussions
April marked the first month in which the Middle East supply disruption translated into a measurable Group III shortfall.
The shortfall landed unequally. The US and Europe were the most dependent on Middle East supply and absorbed the largest cuts.
Asian supplies held firmer, with alternative sources closer to hand.
That asymmetry is set to widen. Asia's position improved further as China's Group III output rebounded and South Korean exports recovered.
Asia’s firmer supply position contrasted with the US and Europe's greater dependence on alternative sources while Middle East flows remained suspended.