Global imports of Group III base oils from the Middle East rose in 2025 to the highest in at least six years, deepening the world's reliance on the region as a source of premium-grade base oils at a time when its supply lines face acute disruption.

The US, Europe and Asia took delivery of more than 2.55 million tonnes of base oils from Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE combined in 2025, Census Bureau, Eurostat and other customs data showed.

The volume rose from less than 2.45 million tonnes in 2024 to the highest since at least 2020 as global demand continued to grow and Middle Eastern producers expanded their share of supply.

Global Group III base oil prices recovered in 2025 partly because of scheduled plant-maintenance in the Middle East. The disruption now facing the region’s supply is unscheduled and of uncertain duration.

Key Highlights

·         Full-year imports from Qatar rose to more than 1.70 million tonnes, climbing from less than 1.55 million tonnes in 2024 to the highest in at least six years.

·         Imports from the UAE climbed to more than 500,000 tonnes, up from less than 480,000 tonnes in 2024, even with a round of plant maintenance work during the year.

·         Shipments from Bahrain fell to around 350,000 tonnes, down from more than 410,000 tonnes in 2024.

·         Middle East supplies accounted for more than 35% of Europe’s Group III base oils supply in 2025 for a third straight year.

·         In the US, the region accounted for more than 40% of Group III supply in 2025, also for a third straight year.

·         Fourth-quarter global imports from Qatar, UAE and Bahrain fell to a one-year low of less than 620,000 tonnes, with shipments to the US dipping to the lowest since end-2023.

Market Repercussions

High-quality feedstock supply and a geographically advantageous location incentivized the construction of large Group III base oils units in the Middle East over the past fifteen years.

Rising global demand for premium-grade base oils then boosted the region’s share of supply in Europe and the US.

Any slowdown in shipments is unlikely to have an immediate impact, with several cargoes already en route to the US, Europe and Asia.

A pause in cargo loadings would instead tighten supply in several months’ time.

Alternative supply options are limited. Most Group III supplies from other regions are committed to term buyers, and maintenance work on Group III units in other markets is scheduled later this year.

Any shortfall could force blenders to turn to other high-quality base oils such as Group II supplies, subject to meeting manufacturers’ formulation requirements.

Even so, the Middle East supplied more than a third of Europe's Group III requirements and more than two-fifths of the US market's in 2025, volumes that would be difficult to replace quickly from any single alternative source.