Europe’s base oils exports to non-EU markets rebounded in September, climbing to an eight-month high as shipments from the Netherlands rose to a three-year peak.

The rise in shipments helped to partially reverse a surplus buildup in August and reshape trade flows heading into the fourth quarter of 2025.

Exports rise to highest since January

Total exports of more than 280,000 tonnes to non-EU markets in September rose from around 230,000 tonnes the previous month, government data showed.

The jump in supplies made September the strongest month since January.

Shipments to key markets in Africa accounted for more than 31% of the export volume, rising for an average share of about 27% during the first eight months of the year.

The shift largely reflected the surge in Netherlands-origin cargoes everywhere from West Africa markets like Nigeria to South Africa and east African outlets like Kenya.

Group I exports fall

The surge in flows contrasted with a drop in exports from Europe’s core Group I suppliers for a second month to the lowest level since May.

The diverging trade flows raised the prospect of leaving a larger overhang of surplus Group I supplies at the start of the fourth quarter and more balanced volumes of premium-grade supplies.

Premium widens

A widening price-premium of Group II and Group III base oils over Group I base oils during the first few weeks of the fourth quarter of the year pointed to such a dynamic.

Tighter-than-expected supply and any subsequent pick-up in demand in markets like Hungary and Turkey could help to absorb some of the excess Group I volumes over the coming weeks.