Europe’s Group I base oils exports fell to a six-month low in November, adding to signs of tighter-than-usual supply across the region during the final weeks of the year.

Total Group I exports to destinations outside Europe fell back to less than 55,000 tonnes in November, dipping from more than 78,000 tonnes in October and by 37% year on year, trade data showed.

The sustained fall in shipments for a fourth straight month pointed either to a build-up of surplus volumes at a time when seasonal demand typically softened, or to tighter-than-usual supply that limited export availability.

Lower exports followed a slump in Europe’s net Group I supply to a multi-year low in October, partly because of Italy’s unusually low output, which fell even further in November.

Key Highlights

·         Italy’s base oils exports slid 22% year on year, reflecting persistently weak domestic production and dwindling stocks.

·         UK exports fell to an eight-month low, driven by a slump in shipments to African markets.

·         Greece remained an outlier, with exports climbing to an eighteen-month high, boosted by a cargo to India.

·         Greece’s recent surge in shipments to India and UAE contrasted with a slump in flows to Turkey, suggesting prices were more attractive in those other markets.

·         Europe’s lower Group I exports contrasted with a jump in shipments of other base oils grades to a three-year high in November, pointing to healthier surplus availability of those supplies.

Market Repercussions

Europe’s lower Group I exports in November likely reflected and eased the impact of reduced regional supply.

The tighter availability curbed the need to clear surplus volumes or to adjust prices accordingly.

The relative lack of surplus base oils and reduced competition from Europe facilitated moves for US suppliers to clear lingering Group I and premium-grade shipments, prompting a wave of US cargoes to West Africa during the fourth quarter.