Turkey’s November Group I Base Oils Imports Rise to Six-Month High

Turkey’s Group I base oils imports rebounded in November, climbing to a six-month high and partially reversing a slump in supply to five-year lows in October.

Total imports of 26,400 tonnes in November rebounded from less than 16,000 tonnes in October, Turkish Statistical Institute data showed.

The October volume was the lowest since July 2021 and compounded the impact of a pause in Turkey’s domestic base oils output that month.

The November imports included a rebound in shipments from Russia as buyers focused on boosting supply amid tighter-than-usual regional availability.

Key Highlights

·         Group I imports from Russia rose year on year for the first time in four months, climbing to the highest since July, despite a narrowing price discount versus supplies from Italy, as well as refinery disruptions in Russia.

·         The rise in shipments suggested buyers’ moves to secure additional volumes outweighed less competitive pricing for the supplies.

·         Imports from Italy climbed to a one-year high, even as the country’s Group I output fell sharply in October because of refinery maintenance.

·         Shipments from Egypt surged to the highest level in at least a decade, underscoring Turkey’s need for additional supplies from alternative sources.

·         Imports from Greece remained low, adding to a more-than 60% year-on-year drop in the country’s shipments to Turkey in January-November.

·         More supplies from Greece moved instead to northwest Europe, as well as other outlets like West Africa and the Middle East.

·         The change in trade flows suggested that prices in those markets were more attractive than in Turkey.

Market Repercussions

The pick-up in Turkey’s imports from Italy and Egypt absorbed volumes that might otherwise have added to a build-up in surplus volumes in Europe towards year-end.

The redirection of those shipments followed an earlier dip in Europe’s Group I base oils supply at the start of the fourth quarter, adding to the prospect of a smaller-than-usual supply-build in November and December.

Europe’s Group I base oils prices faced downward pressure during the final months of last year amid seasonally-weak demand.

But they held in a narrower-than-usual range versus feedstock costs and strengthened relative to prices in other markets like Asia, pointing to more manageable fundamentals in Europe at year-end.