Singapore's base oils exports recovered in the four weeks to 26 August, but the rebound offered little relief to Asian supply, with domestic shipments remaining below normal as the region readies for a seasonal pick-up in demand.

Total exports rose to more than 165,000 tonnes, the highest level since mid-May, according to Enterprise Singapore data. But most of the increase came from re-exports rather than Singapore's own shipments.

Re-exports rose to 43,000 tonnes, their highest level since July 2025, and accounted for 26% of total exports, the highest in more than three years.

The increase more than offset the muted recovery in domestic exports, which remained well below levels seen before May.

That divergence raised uncertainty about the durability of Singapore's rebound.

Its weak domestic flows have persisted for months, extending Asia's broader supply squeeze just as regional demand heads into a seasonal pick-up and plant maintenance looms.

Key Highlights

·         Re-exports accounted for 43% of the latest week's total exports, up from 37% the previous week, and from typical levels of less than 18% in the first seven months of the year.

·         More than 19,000 tonnes was exported to the US this week, only the second US-bound cargo since March and the largest since June 2020. Singapore is typically a recipient, rather than a source, of US shipments.

·         Exports to China fell below 7,000 tonnes in the four weeks to 26 August, the lowest four-week total in more than four years.

·         Imports fell sharply to around 53,000 tonnes, back near their average level before the July surge.

·         Exports to Southeast Asia rose to around 70,000 tonnes, their highest since mid-May, while shipments to India stayed lower than usual despite rising from recent lows.

Market Repercussions

A sustained and simultaneous slowdown in flows from Singapore and the Middle East forced buyers to look elsewhere, putting pressure on other suppliers to sustain steady-to-higher output.

South Korea has already sustained that higher output for three straight months, but the reliance carries several risks. One is concentration, with any disruption to South Korean supply leaving buyers with few alternatives just as flows from Singapore and the Middle East stay weak.

The other is duration. Output at high levels for this long is unusual and increases the risk of a slowdown in production, whether planned or unexpected.

The plant maintenance season now approaching would compound both risks, leaving the market even more exposed to disruption just as regional demand strengthens.