- Home
- About Us
- Newsletter
- Americas
- EMEA
- Asia
- Market Signals
- Companies
- News
- Weekly Magazine
Italy’s lubricants demand fell for a third month in July, reversing most of the spring stock-building surge and leaving year-to-date consumption little changed
Similar declines across several other European markets point to blenders returning to leaner inventories as supply concerns ease
The unwinding pointed to a return to more typical seasonal demand patterns, although Group III tightness supported firmer requirements for other grades
Italy's lubricants demand fell for a third straight month in July, extending the unwinding of stocks built earlier in the year as buyers grew more comfortable with base oils supply.
Demand fell 9% year on year to 33,800 tonnes in July, Ministry of Environment and Energy Security data showed.
The slowdown left consumption of close to 235,000 tonnes in the first seven months of the year just 1% above the same period last year, almost reversing the sharp gains posted in March and April.
Buyers had rushed to build stocks during the spring because of concerns about supply disruptions and higher prices. Much of that additional demand has now been unwound, leaving stocks closer to their more typical levels.
Demand returning to its more typical, subdued growth pattern would bring the stock unwinding close to an end, pointing to a seasonal slowdown in August followed by a sharper pick-up in September.
Key Highlights
· Italy's automotive lubricants demand fell 5% in July and for a second straight month, while industrial oils demand fell 14%, and for a third month.
· Poland’s lubricants demand also fell for a third month in July, while Belgium’s declined for a fourth month.
· Italy, Poland and Belgium recorded a combined 15% decline in lubricants consumption in July, leaving year-to-date demand just 1% above 2025 levels.
· Spain and Portugal recorded second consecutive monthly declines in June, pointing to a similar pattern taking hold elsewhere in Europe.
Market Repercussions
A reversion to more typical seasonal consumption trends and inventory levels would remove a key support that drove stronger demand in the first half of the year.
A continuation of the current run of year-on-year declines in lubricants consumption would tip Italy's full-year demand into outright contraction, extending a downward trend that has mostly persisted across Europe's lubricants market in recent years.
Weaker demand would add to blenders’ incentive to keep stocks lean and complicate any moves to adjust prices in response to high feedstock costs.
The composition of base oils demand would still shift. The slump in Group III supply would leave buyers more reliant on Group I and Group II grades even as overall lubricants consumption stays flat to weaker.
That mix of factors would pull prices in different directions. Firmer underlying demand for Group I and Group II base oils and a strong diesel premium to crude oil would support prices, while lean stocks and the softer, seasonally slower demand in the fourth quarter would weigh the other way.
