Singapore's base oils exports remained near six-year lows through June, leaving Asia's supply recovery vulnerable to fresh disruptions despite weakening demand.

Exports held at just over 110,000 tonnes in the four weeks to 1 July after bottoming below 95,000 tonnes in mid-June, Enterprise Singapore data showed.

Monthly exports remained on course to match or lag May's six-year low and stay well below the monthly average of close to 180,000 tonnes in the year to April.

The prolonged weakness showed little sign of recovery. Weekly exports periodically rebounded before slipping back again, preventing any sustained improvement in four-week shipments.

Singapore's sustained export weakness left Asia's supply recovery dependent on fewer sources than usual. That left the region more exposed to any fresh supply disruptions even as buyers worked down inventories, seasonal consumption slowed and lower crude oil prices deterred stock-building.

Key Highlights

• Four-week exports remained below 125,000 tonnes in every week since late May.

• Exports to China, Southeast Asia and especially India remained well below typical levels.

• Weekly exports fell back to just over 10,000 tonnes in the latest week, the lowest in more than three months.

• Four-week imports remained firm at more than 70,000 tonnes, supported by continued inflows from Europe.

• Sustained imports alongside weak exports pointed to imported material replacing domestic supply in Singapore rather than adding to regional availability.

Market Repercussions

Asia’s supply recovery remained fragile.

Production has recovered in markets including South Korea and demand has slowed across much of the region, sustaining higher stocks.

But unusually low exports from one of Asia's largest export hubs and the ongoing slump in shipments from the Middle East curbed the pace of a regional supply-build.

The reduced availability left Asia more exposed to any further unexpected supply disruption in the region.