Base oils exports stayed elevated in February, with domestic shipments hitting a five-month high after the start-up of a new Group II unit
China’s share of Singapore’s exports rose in the first two months while India's share fell
Rising self-sufficiency reduced Singapore’s import buffer, leaving the city-state more exposed to feedstock disruption and potential run cuts
Singapore’s base oils exports stayed elevated in February as domestic shipments hit a five-month high, a share that could magnify any subsequent decline in flows if feedstock disruptions forced refiners to cut run rates.
Total exports came to 180,000 tonnes in February, easing from 183,000 tonnes in January but close to the monthly average of around 178,000 tonnes over the past year, Enterprise Singapore data showed.
Domestic shipments rose to 160,000 tonnes, accounting for 89% of total exports. The share was the highest in five months and pointed to rising volumes from a new Group II unit that started up last September.
The additional capacity reduced Singapore’s need for top-up volumes from regions such as Europe and the US, while also adding to the feedstock requirements that faced a growing risk of disruption.
Key Highlights
· Exports to China held firm despite dipping from a 34-month high in January, lifting China’s share of Singapore shipments to 24% in the first two months of the year, up from 21% in 2025.
· Exports to India fell year on year for the second time in three months, cutting its share to 18% in the first two months of the year, down from 20% in 2025.
· Imports fell to 45,000 tonnes, the second-lowest in eight months amid a simultaneous pause in US and European shipments for the first time in at least nine years.
· The pause cut the US and Europe’s combined share of imports to 17% in the first two months of this year, down from 37% in 2025.
Market Repercussions
The rise in Singapore’s exports to China so far this year coincided with increased shipments from South Korea and Taiwan. The combined flows added to China’s domestic stocks, cushioning that market against any subsequent slowdown in supplies.
Singapore’s higher flows to China contrasted with a dip in exports to India in February, mirroring a simultaneous slowdown in shipments from South Korea and Taiwan.
The slowdown tightened India’s supply-demand balance and increased its exposure to supply disruption.
Singapore’s growing self-sufficiency added to that risk. Lower imports reduced the buffer available to cushion any drop in output from feedstock disruption or run cuts.