Singapore’s base oils exports fell to a one-month low in the four weeks to 25 March as signs of a drop in output began to feed through into overseas shipments.

Total exports fell to less than 180,000 tonnes, reversing in a single week the surge that lifted shipments to a six-year high earlier in March, Enterprise Singapore data showed.

The speed of the contraction was unusual. Weekly exports fell by more than 55,000 tonnes from the previous week in the steepest weekly drop in more than four years, pointing to a sudden shift in supply availability.

The size and speed of the slowdown suggested that surging fuel prices and feedstock disruptions had begun to feed through to base oils production.

Key Highlights

·         Domestic exports fell to the lowest in more than a month, far outpacing the drop in re-exported volumes.

·         Weekly exports slumped to little more than 10,000 tonnes, the lowest since January 2024 and lower than levels during periods of plant maintenance work.

·         Four-week exports to India fell to the lowest in more than two months, reflecting their already low level compared with flows to Southeast Asia and China.

·         Exports to Southeast Asia remained elevated even as they fell more sharply than the drop in flows to India and China.

Market Repercussions

The surge in Singapore’s exports in the month to mid-March helped replenish regional blenders’ stocks ahead of the spring oil-change season, as shipments arranged earlier continued to be fulfilled.

The slump in shipments in the past week was the first significant sign that cushion had been exhausted.

Any repeat of the trend across the rest of Asia would point to increasingly tight supplies from late March, with the repercussions likely to become more visible over the coming weeks.