Singapore’s four-week base oils exports fell to the second-lowest level since January 2024, with shipments to China weakening sharply
Exports to southeast Asia and India dropped below typical levels, pointing to a broader regional slowdown in Singapore supply flows
Firmer run rates in India and South Korea, alongside higher Taiwan shipments, could cushion the impact of weaker Singapore supply
Singapore’s base oils exports fell to near 16-month lows in the four weeks to 27 May, pointing to a more sustained slowdown in supply flows after shipments had remained resilient since the end-February disruptions.
Four-week exports fell to close to 120,000 tonnes, down from more than 155,000 tonnes in the previous week, Enterprise Singapore data showed.
The volume was the second lowest since January 2024, while exports from domestic sources fell below 100,000 tonnes, matching the lowest level since January 2024.
Singapore’s exports had remained relatively firm through March and April despite feedstock supply disruptions and surging diesel crack spreads.
A slowdown in shipments would put pressure on regional buyers to source supply from alternative markets.
Key Highlights
· Exports to China fell to the lowest since the first half of December 2025, contrasting with late March and early April when shipments to the country remained high even as total exports weakened.
· Exports to southeast Asia and India extended their decline to the lowest since mid-April and stayed well below typical levels.
· Total May exports were likely to fall to the lowest in at least nine months even if shipments rebounded in the final week of May.
Market Repercussions
A second consecutive week of lower exports added to signs of a more marked slowdown in Singapore shipments. A third weekly decline would strengthen indications that the weakness extended beyond short-term volatility.
But the impact was likely to be more muted than several weeks ago.
Firmer run rates in South Korea in April and the completion of plant maintenance work in May pointed to a pick-up in flows from that country.
Taiwan’s base oils exports also showed signs of holding firmer in second-half May.
India’s base oils output and run rates also remained high in April, reducing the country’s import requirements.
Steadier supply from other sources limited the impact of weaker Singapore shipments.
That, combined with elevated prices and a seasonal slowdown in Asian demand from the end of the second quarter, pointed to a more contained market impact than a sharp fall in Singapore exports earlier in the year.