US base oils and lube exports fell sharply in November, sliding to their lowest level in almost three years as shipments slumped to key outlets like Europe.

Total base oils and lubricants exports fell to less than 2.30 million barrels (322,000 tonnes) in November, down from more than 3.30 million barrels in October, US Census Bureau data showed.

The monthly volume was the lowest since February 2023.

Exports dropped at a time of year when domestic demand faced a seasonal lull during winter and followed the completion of major plant-maintenance work.

Key Highlights

·         November exports to Europe fell to less than 130,000 barrels, sliding from typical monthly levels of close to 430,000 barrels in 2025 and the lowest since late 2022.

·         Shipments to Europe fell despite elevated Group II prices relative to the US and other key outlets like India.

·         Lower flows to Europe could reflect moves to avoid a major supply-build in the region and additional pressure on prices at year-end.

·         The pullback highlighted the difficulty for Europe to replace large-volume outlets like Mexico and India as destinations for surplus US supplies.

·         Exports to Africa fell to a four-month low, while shipments to India also stayed subdued.

Market Repercussions

The drop in exports to Europe, alongside a rise in shipments from the Netherlands to non-European markets, likely helped to leave Europe’s base oils market better balanced at the end of 2025.

Lower shipments to India coincided with competitive prices and plentiful availability from logistically-closer Asian suppliers.

The dynamic underscored the growing structural challenge for US exporters to find outlets for surplus supplies as rising production in other regions curbed demand for long-haul arbitrage cargoes.