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Output stays rangebound for fourth time in five months even as regional demand faces year-end slowdown
Exports outside Europe rise to second-highest in seventeen months, offsetting impact of weaker regional demand
Slowdown in US shipments to Europe further cushions impact of seasonal demand slowdown
The Netherlands’ base oils output remained stable in November, holding in a narrow range for the fourth time in five months even as regional demand faced a seasonal slowdown at year-end.
Total base oils output reached 85,000 tonnes in November, slightly up from October but down from 89,000 tonnes in September, CBS Statline data showed.
The dynamic increased the need for more exports beyond Europe as well as a slowdown in imports from markets like the US to limit a build-up of surplus volumes.
That scenario showed signs of materializing, with exports to destinations outside Europe rising in November to their second-highest level in seventeen months.
Key Highlights
· November base oils output fell for the fifth time in six months compared with 2024, after a surge in production that year following plant-maintenance.
· Base oils output less consumption labelled as “for transformation in oil products” fell to 49,000 tonnes, down from 63,000 tonnes in October.
· The lower volume remained above typical monthly levels of around 30,000 tonnes in the third quarter and contrasted with a shortfall in November 2024.
· Base oils exports to markets outside Europe rose year on year for the third time in four months, especially to West Africa and Middle East.
Market Repercussions
As home to Europe’s sole Group II base oils unit, the Netherlands’ output strongly influences the region’s supply of premium-grade base oils.
The year-on-year slowdown in domestic output, combined with higher shipments beyond Europe, partially offset the seasonal dip in regional demand, moderating a rise in surplus volumes.
With the last round of major plant-maintenance work in the Netherlands completed in spring 2024, output is likely to remain close to current levels, which are lower than in the second half of 2024.
Any slowdown in US shipments to Europe would further stabilise supply, keeping market fundamentals more balanced through year-end and into early 2026.
Such a slowdown showed signs of materializing late last year.
