US base oils imports fell to their lowest level in almost six years as Middle East Group III shipments almost disappeared, with alternative suppliers unable to replace the lost volumes
May marked the first month to reflect the full impact of the Middle East disruption after earlier cargoes already on the water had continued arriving through April
The premium-grade shortfall is likely to keep pressure on US refiners to cover more domestic requirements, tightening export availability and extending the disruption across overseas markets
US base oils imports slumped in May to their lowest level in almost six years as the last in-transit Middle East cargoes arrived, leaving the supply gap fully exposed for the first time.
Total imports fell to less than 575,000 barrels (81,000 tonnes) in May, down from more than 1.20 million barrels in April, Census Bureau data showed.
The volume was down 44% year on year and the lowest since June 2020, when pandemic-related restrictions disrupted global trade.
Monthly imports had averaged more than 1.40 million barrels in the year to April, with May's total less than half that level.
May was the first month to capture the full impact of the supply disruption. Cargoes that had departed the Middle East before the end-February pause continued arriving through April.
South Korea had also partially offset a slowdown in Middle East shipments in April. But it was unable to sustain that role in May.
Key Highlights
· The Middle East's share of US imports collapsed to just 0.1% from around 44% during 2025.
· South Korea's share rose to 43%, pointing to its role as the largest remaining supplier of premium-grade base oils.
· Imports from Malaysia reached a one-year high, while Finland posted a five-month high, although neither came close to replacing lost Middle East volumes.
· Imports from Singapore climbed to their second-highest level in more than seven years, pointing to continued arrivals of heavy-grade supplies from a new Group II unit in the island-state.
Market Repercussions
May showed the difficulty of replacing the lost Middle East Group III supply even as buyers turned to alternative suppliers.
South Korea increased shipments in April, while Malaysia and Finland boosted volumes in May. Combined, they still fell well short of replacing the volumes previously shipped from the Middle East.
The shortfall increased pressure on US refiners to maximise domestic premium-grade production to cover more local requirements where technically feasible.
That would leave less supply available for export, extending the disruption’s impact beyond the US market and tightening availability for overseas buyers reliant on US spot supply.
The same transit lag that delayed the disruption's impact will also slow any recovery. Even after Middle East exports eventually resume, they will take weeks to reach US ports, leaving Group III availability tight for months regardless of when flows restart.