US base oils imports fell to a three-month low in February as shipments from Qatar declined even before the pause in Middle East shipments from end-February tightened Group III availability more sharply.

Total imports fell to 1.36 million barrels (191,000 tonnes) in February, down from a sixteen-month high of 1.81 million barrels in January, US Census Bureau data showed.

Most imports consisted of Group III base oils.

Imports fell as shipments from Qatar dropped to a fourteen-month low, highlighting the sensitivity of US supply to fluctuations in Middle East export volumes, even with relatively steady flows from other regional suppliers.

Key Highlights

·         Imports from the Middle East fell to 545,000 barrels, down from a nine-month high of more than 900,000 barrels in January.

·         The region’s share of total imports fell to around 40%, from more than 50% in January and the 2025 average of 44%.

·         Imports from the Middle East showed signs of rebounding in March, boosted by the arrival of several large cargoes from the UAE and Qatar.

·         Imports could get further support in April as several more cargoes arrived early that month.

·         Shipments from South Korea rose to an eleven-month high in February, lifting Asia’s share to a nine-month high of 36%.

·         Imports from Canada climbed by 36% year on year, extending a sustained increase since mid-2025.

Market Repercussions

US base oils imports ran at more than 45% of domestic demand in recent years, reflecting the growing role of Group III base oils in lubricants formulations.

Shipments from the Middle East accounted for more than 40% of those imports, highlighting the difficulty of replacing such volumes from alternative sources.

Total imports dipped in February even with relatively steady flows from the UAE and Bahrain.

The market now faced a simultaneous pause in shipments from Qatar, the UAE and Bahrain in the coming months, with the impact set to intensify once the last pre-disruption cargoes arrived in April.