Global base oils exports to West Africa held at a six-month low in February, curbing the usual start-of-year inventory build and leaving the region more exposed to supply disruptions from end-February.

Total exports to Nigeria, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana and Senegal came to less than 16,000 tonnes in February, holding at the same level as January and down 45% year on year, Eurostat, HMRC, Census Bureau and other government and shipping data showed.

West Africa typically absorbed a wave of shipments from Europe and the US at the start of each year as those markets cleared surplus supply during the winter months.

That pattern failed to materialise this year for European shipments and was weaker than usual for US flows.

The slowdown left West Africa with a thinner buffer against supply disruptions over the following months.

Key Highlights

·         February shipments to Nigeria accounted for more than 92% of total exports, up from less than 80% in 2025, and included a resumption of flows from Argentina.

·         Europe accounted for little more than 10% of total exports, down from 44% in 2025 and the lowest in more than two years.

·         The US accounted for more than 75% of total shipments, with almost all volumes moving to Nigeria.

·         Total exports of less than 32,000 tonnes in January-February fell 62% year on year to the lowest for that period in more than five years.

Market Repercussions

The drop in flows from Europe pointed to more limited surplus supply early in the year, along with a slowdown in term shipments.

Spot availability in the US market was higher, but even those volumes were lower than in recent years.

Nigeria received a boost from stronger US shipments in March, along with a cargo from Egypt, with these cargoes arranged before the late-February supply disruptions and price surge.

Even so, the marked drop in shipments during the first two months of the year left West Africa with lower stocks and more exposed to market disruptions than other regions.