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Global base oils exports fell to an 11-month low in February, with US, European and Asian flows weakening ahead of end-February disruptions
A pause in Asian shipments in March pointed to a further decline in exports, compounding emerging supply tightness
Regional inventories came under growing pressure during the first quarter, with similar dynamics likely to emerge in other markets in the second quarter
Global base oils exports to the Middle East slumped to an 11-month low in February, tightening regional supply and leaving inventories under growing pressure even before disruptions from the end of the month.
Total exports to Saudi Arabia and the UAE combined fell to less than 30,000 tonnes in February, down from more than 40,000 tonnes in January and the lowest since March 2025, Census Bureau, Eurostat, Enterprise Singapare and other government data showed.
The February volume could be revised lower if shipments from Europe and US were redirected to other markets, mirroring a similar pattern in South Korean flows.
Even without revisions, global exports to the Middle East fell from the start of the year as firmer demand in markets such as China and South America and tighter supply in Europe reduced availability for the region.
The slowdown left the Middle East with shrinking inventories even before the disruptions from end-February.
Key Highlights
· Combined US and European exports of less than 11,000 tonnes to the Middle East in February were the second lowest in 18 months, with the January volume the lowest during that period.
· The volume was well below monthly levels of close to 30,000 tonnes during the second half of 2025.
· There was a pause in March shipments from Asia, which typically accounted for more than 60% of total exports to the Middle East.
Market Repercussions
A further decline in global exports in March would extend the February slump, compounding the immediate impact of supply disruptions that began at end-February.
The drop in supplies already left regional inventories under growing pressure during the first quarter of the year, with little buffer in place ahead of the disruptions that followed.
The tightness contrasted with Asia, where a pick-up in flows in March delayed similar pressure on supply. The redirection of cargoes away from the Middle East added to that regional cushion.
But the tightness already facing the Middle East in March pointed to those challenges extending to other markets in the second quarter.
