Global base oils exports to key African markets hit an eleven-month high in December, driven by stronger US and European shipments
Full-year 2025 exports exceeded one million tonnes for the first time in three years, with Nigeria and Kenya leading growth
US surplus volumes flowed to Nigeria while Europe expanded term business in Kenya, pointing to Africa’s rising strategic role in global base oil trade flows
Global base oils exports to key African markets surged in December, with rising spot availability and firm demand lifting total shipments to an eleven-month high.
Combined exports to Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya rose to 106,000 tonnes in December, climbing from less than 60,000 tonnes in November to the highest since January, government data showed.
Shipments originated mostly from US, Europe, and Asia, with additional volumes from the Middle East and Latin America.
The December rebound lifted full-year exports in 2025 to their highest level in three years, highlighting Africa’s growing strategic importance as rising global base oils supply intensifies competition for export outlets.
Key Highlights
· Fourth-quarter exports rose to more than 260,000 tonnes, the highest since the first quarter of 2025, driven by a rebound in US shipments.
· Fourth-quarter exports to Nigeria rose to close to 100,000 tonnes, up from less than 70,000 tonnes in each of the previous two quarters, reflecting the jump in US supplies.
· Fourth-quarter shipments to Kenya exceeded 30,000 tonnes for the first time in at least six years, as European exports rose to their highest level in more than three years.
· Exports to Egypt and South Africa fell from the third quarter, amid a dip in flows from the US and Middle East.
· Combined full-year exports to Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya exceeded one million tonnes in 2025 for the first time in three years, rising from around 950,000 tonnes in 2024.
· Full-year exports to Nigeria climbed above 330,000 tonnes, from around 300,000 tonnes in 2024, with gains driven by the US and Europe as well as less regular sources like Egypt and Argentina.
· Full-year exports to Kenya reached almost 100,000 tonnes, from less than 80,000 tonnes in 2024 and less than 60,000 tonnes in 2023, driven almost entirely by higher European shipments.
Market Repercussions
The rebound in US exports to Nigeria in the fourth quarter helped to ease surplus supply pressure in North America while offsetting tighter Group I spot availability in Europe.
The simultaneous rise in European shipments to Kenya extended a broader trend of growing contract volumes into that market, even as regional spot availability tightened.
The flows reflected differing commercial dynamics. Nigeria absorbed more spot cargoes as exporters sought outlets for surplus volumes.
Kenya drew more term shipments, as European refiners prioritised expansion of contract supplies into key African growth-markets.
The sharp rise in shipments to Kenya over the past two years also signals strengthening domestic lubricants consumption, reinforcing its appeal as a strategic outlet amid rising global base oils supply.