• Global base oils exports to Africa fell sharply in April after March's more-than-seven-year high, as surplus spot volumes disappeared

• Exports to Nigeria collapsed from a more-than-seven-year high, while flows to Egypt and Kenya remained firm, with steadier term supply

• Disruption-driven stock-building absorbed surplus supply, leaving spot-dependent markets more exposed than term buyers

Global base oils exports to Africa fell sharply in April after a more-than-seven-year high in March as disruption-driven stock-building tightened supply first in spot markets.

Exports to the key markets of Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya fell to around 55,000 tonnes in April from more than 160,000 tonnes in March, Eurostat, Census Bureau, Korea Customs Service and other government data showed.

The March surge was always going to be temporary. Sellers cleared surplus volumes that had accumulated during the Northern Hemisphere winter, while buyers accelerated purchases as supply disruptions emerged from late February.

The reversal exposed a growing divide within Africa's import markets. Countries supplied largely through long-term contracts continued to receive steady volumes, while markets reliant on spot cargoes saw supply fall sharply as surplus availability disappeared.

Key Highlights

• Exports to Nigeria fell to less than 8,000 tonnes in April from more than 70,000 tonnes in March, which had been the highest monthly volume in more than seven years.

• US exports to Africa fell to less than 8,000 tonnes in April after surging to around 70,000 tonnes in March, well above typical monthly volumes of around 22,000 tonnes.

• European exports fell to close to 40,000 tonnes from nearly 70,000 tonnes in March, although flows to Egypt, Kenya and South Africa held closer to typical levels.

• Exports to Egypt rose to around 20,000 tonnes in April, above both March levels and the 2025 monthly average.

• Exports to Kenya eased from March's elevated levels but remained close to typical volumes.

Market Repercussions

The disruption-driven surge in global buying and seasonal rise in demand absorbed much of the surplus supply that had previously flowed into spot markets.

The surge in demand tightened availability even where supply losses were smaller than initially expected.

The change in buyer behaviour and tighter surplus supply had the largest impact on spot-dependent import markets such as Nigeria.

The country absorbed a large share of March's excess exports but saw volumes collapse a month later as sellers prioritised existing commitments elsewhere.

The slowdown extended through May and June, leaving Nigeria with tightening supply as March volumes drew down without replacement.

Nigeria’s exposure contrasted with markets that relied more on term arrangements or growing domestic production. Egypt and Kenya held steadier through the same period.