

US base oils and lube exports held firm in November even as they fell from the previous month.
The firm export volumes in November and throughout second-half 2024 limited the pace of a build-up of surplus supplies during the final months of the year, at a time when domestic demand faced a seasonal slowdown.
Total US base oils and lube exports fell to less than 3.80 million barrels (530,000 tonnes) in November, from more than 4.0 million barrels the previous month, government data showed.
Even with the dip in shipments, exports remained close to typical flows of around 3.75 million barrels/month in the first ten months of the year.
Exports held firm in November even with an almost-complete pause in shipments from the district of San Francisco for a second month.
The pause in exports followed maintenance work on a key base oils plant in the region in October.
Exports got support from an ongoing flow of regular shipments to West Africa since August.
Additional supplies moved from the US to the region in November and December.
Exports got a further boost from a rise in shipments to India in November to their highest level last year.
The pick-up in shipments to India followed a sustained slowdown in arbitrage cargoes to the country from the end of the first quarter of last year.
The rise in arbitrage flows to outlets like West Africa and India followed a drop in US base oils export prices from early September to mid-November.
The mostly-steadier prices since mid-November in turn pointed to sufficient demand from overseas markets and to more muted pressure from surplus supplies during the final weeks of last year.
The more muted pressure highlighted the benefit of moves to clear surplus supplies over an extended period rather than in a short timeframe at the end of the year.
Even so, a seasonal slowdown in the US’ domestic lube consumption during the winter months kept pressure on refiners to maintain high exports, and prices that sustained those high volumes at the start of this year.