US base oils and lube demand rose to a six-month high in October on the back of a rebound in exports and a seasonal pick-up in domestic consumption.Domestic base oils and lube demand of 2.66 million barrels (374,000 tonnes) in October rose from 2.14 million barrels the previous month, government data showed.The rise in demand in October from the previous month repeated a typical seasonal trend and followed a drop in US posted and spot base oils prices in the month of September.Consumption still fell by 9% in October and for the fifth time in six months from year-earlier levels.A sustained rise in US base oils and lube exports countered the slowdown.Total US demand, or domestic consumption and exports combined, duly rose to 6.73 million barrels in October, up from less than 5.70 million barrels the previous month.Base oils and lube exports accounted for more than 60% of the total for the seventh time since the start of last year.They exceeded 60% of total demand just three times in all of 2023.Exports’ rising share of total demand highlighted the growing importance of overseas markets as the key outlet for US base oils supplies.US refiners’ rising base oils output in the first ten months of the year, even with shrinking domestic demand, suggested that they were comfortable with that trend.The dynamic in turn suggested that US export base oils price margins were at levels that sustained the attraction of moving more supplies to overseas markets.The dynamic also increased the importance of US base oils exports holding at elevated levels at year-end, when a seasonal slowdown in consumption raised the prospect of compounding the drop in domestic demand.A fall in US base oils export prices from September to mid-November facilitated such a trend, including an increasingly regular flow of shipments to outlets like Nigeria throughout the third and fourth quarters of the year..US’ October base oils supply falls.US’ Oct base oils/lube exports rise.US Oct base oils/lube exports to Latam rise.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
