US exports fall to lowest since February 2023
Exports to Mexico stay unusually low for third straight month
Exports to South America dip, compounding challenge for US refiners to clear surplus volumes
US base oils and lubricant exports dropped sharply in September, falling to their lowest level since early 2023.
A continued slump in shipments to Mexico for the third consecutive month drove the decline, highlighting the crucial role of the Mexican market in absorbing surplus US supplies.
A surge in shipments to South America in August partially offset export declines to Mexico that month.
The region’s inability to absorb such large volumes for a second straight month underscores the challenge that US refiners could face if shipments to Mexico fail to recover.
Key Highlights:
Total exports fell below 2.70 million barrels (375,000 tonnes), the lowest since February 2023.
Exports dipped below the 3-million-barrel mark for the second time in three months.
Shipments to Mexico remained below 860,000 barrels for a third month, down from an average of 1.6 million barrels/month in the year to June 2025.
Slump in exports to Mexico preceded the country’s introduction of stricter fuel-import rules at the start of the fourth quarter.
Exports to South America fell to less than 420,000 barrels, the second-lowest in seven months after August’s eight-year high.
Q3 export slump contrasted with strong US domestic demand, partially cushioning the impact.
Lower exports because of strong domestic demand would be supportive for market fundamentals.
Strong domestic demand because of lower exports would be less supportive.
Strong domestic demand because of lower exports would point to moves to absorb surplus supplies in the domestic market, rather than to strong outright consumption.
September export data was delayed due to the US government shutdown in October–November 2025.
Market Implications:
The September slump highlights the US market’s reliance on Mexico to manage surplus base oils and lubricants supply.
Any prolonged slowdown in shipments to Mexico would keep total exports under pressure, forcing US refiners to find alternative outlets for growing surplus volumes either in domestic or overseas markets.
