· Global base oils prices extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.· Outright prices mostly hold firm or rise even in face of ongoing dip in crude oil/diesel prices.· Contrasting trends point to stronger base oils fundamentals relative to crude/diesel.· Signs of muted-to-weak base oils demand in growing number of markets point to supply as key factor supporting firm margins.· Dynamic suggests any improvement in supply could have more marked impact on margins..· Asia’s base oils price premium to Singapore gasoil extends rise..· FOB Asia Group I base oils price premium rises, stays well above year-earlier levels for all grades, especially heavier grades.· Rising price premium points to firm supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing refiners to raise output.· Sustained strength of base oils premium points to insufficient market supply even with incentive to raise output.· Sustained strength of base oils premium could instead put pressure on adjustment in demand in order to ease tight market fundamentals..· China’s Group II base oils price premium to Shandong diesel prices extends rise..· Rising base oils price premium points to firm supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizes refiners to maintain or raise output.· Higher output increases importance of firm demand to absorb additional supplies.· Higher output, combined with any demand weakness, raises risk of rise in surplus supply..· CFR India Group II N70 premium to Singapore gasoil stays unusually high..· High premium points to firm supply-demand fundamentals.· High premium facilitates arbitrage to move more supplies to India.· High premium incentivizes overseas refiners to boost output of very-light grade base oils..· Europe Group II base oils price premium to VGO rises to highest since end-Q3 2024..· Group II price premium stays well above year-earlier levels, despite lower supply because of plant maintenance at end-Q1/early Q2 2024.· Strength of Group II prices points to firm supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing rise in supply from domestic and overseas sources.· Any such rise in requirements could provide valuable outlet for US supplies, especially of heavy grades..· US Group II price premium to VGO rises, with domestic light grades climbing in recent weeks at faster pace than other grades..· Firmer Group II light-grade premium stays well above year-earlier levels.· Dynamic points to supply-demand fundamentals that are at least as strong as year-earlier levels.· Increasingly firm margins incentivize refiners to boost base oils output, especially relative to other products like diesel..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 5 May.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 5 May
· Global base oils prices extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.· Outright prices mostly hold firm or rise even in face of ongoing dip in crude oil/diesel prices.· Contrasting trends point to stronger base oils fundamentals relative to crude/diesel.· Signs of muted-to-weak base oils demand in growing number of markets point to supply as key factor supporting firm margins.· Dynamic suggests any improvement in supply could have more marked impact on margins..· Asia’s base oils price premium to Singapore gasoil extends rise..· FOB Asia Group I base oils price premium rises, stays well above year-earlier levels for all grades, especially heavier grades.· Rising price premium points to firm supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing refiners to raise output.· Sustained strength of base oils premium points to insufficient market supply even with incentive to raise output.· Sustained strength of base oils premium could instead put pressure on adjustment in demand in order to ease tight market fundamentals..· China’s Group II base oils price premium to Shandong diesel prices extends rise..· Rising base oils price premium points to firm supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizes refiners to maintain or raise output.· Higher output increases importance of firm demand to absorb additional supplies.· Higher output, combined with any demand weakness, raises risk of rise in surplus supply..· CFR India Group II N70 premium to Singapore gasoil stays unusually high..· High premium points to firm supply-demand fundamentals.· High premium facilitates arbitrage to move more supplies to India.· High premium incentivizes overseas refiners to boost output of very-light grade base oils..· Europe Group II base oils price premium to VGO rises to highest since end-Q3 2024..· Group II price premium stays well above year-earlier levels, despite lower supply because of plant maintenance at end-Q1/early Q2 2024.· Strength of Group II prices points to firm supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing rise in supply from domestic and overseas sources.· Any such rise in requirements could provide valuable outlet for US supplies, especially of heavy grades..· US Group II price premium to VGO rises, with domestic light grades climbing in recent weeks at faster pace than other grades..· Firmer Group II light-grade premium stays well above year-earlier levels.· Dynamic points to supply-demand fundamentals that are at least as strong as year-earlier levels.· Increasingly firm margins incentivize refiners to boost base oils output, especially relative to other products like diesel..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 5 May.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 5 May
