· Global base oils prices mostly hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.· Firm margins point to strong supply-demand fundamentals, incentivize refiners to maintain or raise output.· Demand would need to hold firm to absorb steady-to-higher supplies.· Any signs of demand weakening, combined with firm margins, could speed up rise in surplus supplies.· FOB Asia base oils prices hold steady relative to Singapore gasoil..· Group II heavy-grade price-premium to gasoil stays relatively firm even if well below highs in Q2 2025.· Group II light-grade price-premium to gasoil also remains down from peak levels in Q2 2025, but size of fall from those peak levels is smaller than for heavy grades..· Firm light/heavy grade margins point to strong supply-demand fundamentals, sustain incentive for refiners to maintain high base oils output.· China’s domestic Group II N150 price-premium to Shandong diesel prices falls for first time since H1 July 2025..· Price-premium edges down but remains close to highest since May 2025.· Price-premium similarly rose in Q3 2024, before pause in H1 Sept 2025, then extending rise to end-Sept 2024.· Similar trend this year would point to ongoing support from seasonal rise in demand.· On-going pause or drop in price-premium over coming weeks conversely suggests any support from seasonal rise in demand has begun to wane..· CFR India Group II N70 price-premium to Singapore gasoil steadies after slipping during most of past month..· Base oils premium stays at relatively elevated level even after recent fall.· Elevated base oils price-premium sustains incentive for overseas refiners to produce and move more very-light-grade base oils to India.· Elevated premium, and incentive to move more shipments to India, point to demand that remains sufficiently strong to attract and absorb such supplies..· Europe Group III 4cSt (low) price-premium to vacuum gasoil (VGO) rises to highest since Oct 2024..· Rise in Group III 4cSt price-premium outpaces firm Group II N150 price-premium to VGO, contrasts with weaker SN 150 premium to VGO.· Rise in Group III 4cSt price-premium also outpaces steady US Group III 4cSt premium to VGO.· Outperformance of Europe Group III 4cSt base oils points to stronger supply-demand fundamentals vs other grades and regions.· Outperformance boosts incentive to increase Group III supply in Europe market..· US Group III 4cSt base oils price premium to VGO holds firm in narrow range since end-May 2025..· Firm Group III 4cSt premium contrasts with weakening Group II light-grade premium to VGO since mid-May 2025.· Group III 4cSt premium to VGO remains well below unusually high levels at end-2022, but well above levels before 2020.· Recent strength of Group III margins in US and in Europe and relative to Group II suggests that impact of plant-maintenance work in Q2 2025 extends well beyond completion of that maintenance work..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 15 September.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 15 September.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
