· Europe Group I brightstock price stays unusually firm relative to light and heavy neutrals so far in Q3 2025..· Europe Group I brightstock price stays unusually firm versus feedstock vacuum gasoil price so far in Q3 2025..· Europe Group I export brightstock price maintains steep premium to imported cargo prices in markets like India..· Europe Group I domestic brightstock price maintains steep premium to US export prices..· Europe’s high brightstock price differentials suggest the heavy-grade product’s supply-demand fundamentals remain as strong in Q3 2025 as they were in H1 2025.· Europe’s high brightstock price differentials stay high in Q3 2025 even after completion of Group I plant-maintenance in Europe during H1 2025..· Completion of maintenance-work raises prospect of rise in Group I supplies.· Italy’s Group I base oils output extends recovery at end-Q2 2025, reflecting that dynamic..· US moves unusually large volume of brightstock to India at end-Q2 2025, with shipments arriving in July 2025..· Shipment from US to India takes advantage of increasingly wide gap between US and CFR India brightstock prices.· US shipment moves to India rather than to Europe, despite Europe’s even steeper price-premium to US brightstock prices..· Argentina moves unusually large shipment of Group I base oils to Nigeria at end-June 2025, with shipment arriving in July 2025.· Shipment moves to West Africa despite steep premium of Europe Group I base oils prices versus other markets.· Shipment of Group I base oils supplies from Americas to other markets rather than to Europe in recent months points to regional supply that is now sufficient cover requirements.· Dynamic frees up more brightstock supplies from overseas markets to target other regions rather than Europe.· Rise in shipments to other regions raises prospect of easing sustained tightness of global brightstock supply.· Easing supply-tightness raises prospect of magnifying impact of any additional brightstock supply in global market in coming months.· Unusually firm brightstock price-differentials incentivize refiners to continue to maximise output even as fundamentals show signs of changing..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 25 August.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 25 August.India’s July base oils imports rise.US June base oils/lube exports fall.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
