· Global base oils price differentials fall sharply relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices in June 2025 following surge in crude oil prices..· Speed and size of fall in base oils margins reflects more the surge in crude oil prices rather than sudden, unexpected change in base oils supply-demand fundamentals.· Lack of any sudden, unexpected change in supply-demand fundamentals could support reversion of base oils margins closer to their higher levels in early-June 2025 before their slump in recent weeks.· Fall in base oils margins in June 2025 follows surge in base oils margins in early-April 2025.· Speed and size of rise in base oils margins reflected more the slump in crude oil prices in early-April 2025 rather than sudden, unexpected change in base oils supply-demand fundamentals at that time.· Lack of any sudden, unexpected change in supply-demand fundamentals failed to support reversion of base oils margins closer to their lower levels before April 2025.· Base oils margins instead extended their gains through April-May 2025..· Firmer base oils margins coincided with and reflected tighter global supply-demand fundamentals in early-Q2 2025..· US base oils/lube exports to India, Mexico and Africa fall to eleven-month low in April 2025..· Lower exports reflect drop in availability of spot volumes as plant-maintenance work in US coincides with seasonal rise in demand at start of Q2 2025..· In Europe, Italy’s Group I base oils exports to markets outside Europe fall in April 2025 to lowest level in more than five years..· Drop in exports coincides with or precedes round of plant-maintenance work and seasonal rise in demand in Europe at start of Q2 2025, cutting surplus supply..· In Asia, South Korea’s base oils exports stay unusually low in May 2025 for fifth time in six months as recent/ongoing plant-maintenance work cuts surplus supply..· Slide in base oils margins in June 2025 by contrast coincides with improving supply and weakening demand fundamentals.· Supply improves following completion of most plant-maintenance work in key markets around the world.· Seasonal slowdown in lube demand during summer months would compound impact of already-weak lube demand in growing number of key markets..· Global base oils prices hold firm, rather than fall, in early-Q2 2025 as tight supply-demand fundamentals more than counter impact of lower crude oil prices.· Global base oils prices could now face repeat of that dynamic, in reverse, with weaker supply-demand fundamentals at least partially countering impact of higher crude oil prices..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 23 June.S Korea’s May base oils exports stay low.US’ April base oils/lube exports fall.Latin America’s April lube demand falls
