· US Group III 4cSt base oils price-premium to Group II light grades falls at end-July for first time in three months, before extending dip in August 2025.· Asia’s Group III 4cSt (low) price-premium to Group II light grades starts trending lower from late-June 2025..· Europe Group III 4cSt (low) price-premium to Group I and Group II light grades continues to edge higher after protracted slump since early-2023..· Global Group III price-differentials stay weak or start to slip relative to Group I/II base oils after rising at start of Q2 2025.· Firmer Group III price-differentials at start of Q2 2025 coincide with heavy round of maintenance work or production issues that cut Group III output globally during that period..· Global base oils imports from Bahrain and UAE fall to thirty-five-month low in May 2025 amid heavy round of plant-maintenance in Middle East in Q2 2025..· Asia’s Group III base oils imports from Middle East extend slide to four-month low in June 2025..· In Europe, Group III base oils exports from Spain fall to multi-year low in June 2025..· In China, sustained fall in domestic Group III base oils output extends into July 2025..· Drop in Group III base oils supply coincides with seasonal rise in demand in US, Europe and Asia.· Tighter supply-demand fundamentals coincide with and support firmer Group III base oils prices relative to other grades and relative to feedstock prices..· Even with tighter supply-demand fundamentals, recovery in Group III base oils prices is relatively muted.· US/Europe Group III 4cSt price-premium to vacuum gasoil prices recovers from early-2025, but only to highest since Sept-Oct 2024.· Even with recovery, US/Europe Group III 4cSt price-premium to VGO of around $600-650/tonne in July 2025 remains down from more than $1,400/tonne at end-2022/early 2023.· Even with recovery in recent months, global Group III 4cSt price-premium to Group I and Group II base oils remains unusually narrow in 2025.· Group III prices stay weak despite tighter supply and stronger demand fundamentals in Q2 2025.· Those tight fundamentals now start to unwind in Q3 2025 following completion of most plant-maintenance work.· Group III base oils price-differentials duly resume their downward trend, from already-low levels, in most markets..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 11 August.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 11 August.Global premium-grade base oil imports from Middle East fall in May.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
