· Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay mixed, with firmer demand in India, steady requirements in southeast Asia, weaker demand in China.· Signs of slowdown in shipments to China, and the country’s weaker domestic prices vs FOB Asia prices, add to signs of more muted demand in that market.· India’s Group II prices stay firm relative to Asia prices, pointing to ongoing buying interest in that market..· Base oils exports to China from South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore combined fall in Sept 2024 to lowest in more than a decade..· China accounts for 8% of South Korea’s base oils exports in Sept 2024..· Share is lowest in almost two years, reflecting deeper slide in South Korea’s shipments to China than to other markets.· Slide in shipments to China adds to signs of slowdown in country’s base oils demand, especially for overseas supplies.· China’s domestic Group II price premium to FOB NE Asia price falls again, after rising from May 2024 to early Oct 2024..· Narrower premium complicates arbitrage, adding to signs of more muted demand from buyers in China.· China’s firm domestic Group II premium to diesel points to steadier demand, but with domestic supply sufficient to cover requirements..· Singapore’s base oils exports to China over last four weeks stay lower than usual compared with first seven months of 2024..· Slowdown in shipments adds additional signs of more muted demand in the country..· Philippines’ imports from Thailand exceed supplies from Singapore and South Korea combined in Aug 2024 for fourth time this year.· That happened just three times in 2022 and 2023 combined..· Rising share of supplies from Thailand points to growing demand for Group I base oils even as regional availability dwindles.· Dynamic contrasts with other countries in Asia, where premium-grade base oils account for growing market share, while Group I market share shrinks..· India’s base oils demand for overseas supplies likely to hold firm during Q4 2024 even after rebound in imports in Sept 2024..· Higher imports in Sept 2024 help to replenish blenders’ depleted stocks ahead of expected fall in shipments from South Korea during most of Q4 2024.· Surge in imports of very-light grade base oils contrasts with fall in shipments of other grades..· Dynamic muffles impact of rise in imports, curbs blenders’ ability to replenish stocks of other grades.· Stock-building likely to get even more complicated this and next month because of likely drop in imports.· South Korea’s base oils exports to India fall to fourteen-month low in Sept 2024, raising likelihood of drop in India’s total imports in Oct 2024..· Drop in shipments from South Korea puts onus on blenders to boost imports from other sources.· Key sources like Taiwan and Saudi Arabia likely had limited room to increase significantly their shipment volumes beyond recent levels.· Singapore’s base oils exports to India show signs of improving to more typical levels over month to mid-Oct 2024 but show little sign of larger-than-usual flows.· Any significant pick-up in arbitrage shipments from US shows little sign of materializing any time soon.· Dynamic could leave domestic demand outpacing supply..· CFR India Group II heavy-grade premium to FOB NE Asia prices extends rise in Oct 2024, recovering from discount to FOB prices in most of Q3 2024..· Discounted price cut incentive for overseas suppliers to move more heavy-grade shipments to India.· India’s Group II heavy-grade base oils imports duly fall in Sept 2024 to second-lowest level in fifteen months..· Recent recovery in CFR India heavy-grade price differential suggests the drop in supply may have been overdone and exceeded any slowdown in demand.· Heavy-grade imports likely to stay lower in Oct 2024 because of plant maintenance work in South Korea..· India’s imports of very-light grade base oils rise to 30-month high in Sept 2024..· Jump in imports follows rise in India’s retail diesel premium to CFR India N70 price in Sept 2024 to highest level in more than two years..· India’s demand for very-light grade base oils has tendency to rise when diesel premium to N70 widens..S Korea's Sept exports to India fall.India Sept Group II imports hold steady.India’s Sept v light-grade imports rise.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 Oct
· Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay mixed, with firmer demand in India, steady requirements in southeast Asia, weaker demand in China.· Signs of slowdown in shipments to China, and the country’s weaker domestic prices vs FOB Asia prices, add to signs of more muted demand in that market.· India’s Group II prices stay firm relative to Asia prices, pointing to ongoing buying interest in that market..· Base oils exports to China from South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore combined fall in Sept 2024 to lowest in more than a decade..· China accounts for 8% of South Korea’s base oils exports in Sept 2024..· Share is lowest in almost two years, reflecting deeper slide in South Korea’s shipments to China than to other markets.· Slide in shipments to China adds to signs of slowdown in country’s base oils demand, especially for overseas supplies.· China’s domestic Group II price premium to FOB NE Asia price falls again, after rising from May 2024 to early Oct 2024..· Narrower premium complicates arbitrage, adding to signs of more muted demand from buyers in China.· China’s firm domestic Group II premium to diesel points to steadier demand, but with domestic supply sufficient to cover requirements..· Singapore’s base oils exports to China over last four weeks stay lower than usual compared with first seven months of 2024..· Slowdown in shipments adds additional signs of more muted demand in the country..· Philippines’ imports from Thailand exceed supplies from Singapore and South Korea combined in Aug 2024 for fourth time this year.· That happened just three times in 2022 and 2023 combined..· Rising share of supplies from Thailand points to growing demand for Group I base oils even as regional availability dwindles.· Dynamic contrasts with other countries in Asia, where premium-grade base oils account for growing market share, while Group I market share shrinks..· India’s base oils demand for overseas supplies likely to hold firm during Q4 2024 even after rebound in imports in Sept 2024..· Higher imports in Sept 2024 help to replenish blenders’ depleted stocks ahead of expected fall in shipments from South Korea during most of Q4 2024.· Surge in imports of very-light grade base oils contrasts with fall in shipments of other grades..· Dynamic muffles impact of rise in imports, curbs blenders’ ability to replenish stocks of other grades.· Stock-building likely to get even more complicated this and next month because of likely drop in imports.· South Korea’s base oils exports to India fall to fourteen-month low in Sept 2024, raising likelihood of drop in India’s total imports in Oct 2024..· Drop in shipments from South Korea puts onus on blenders to boost imports from other sources.· Key sources like Taiwan and Saudi Arabia likely had limited room to increase significantly their shipment volumes beyond recent levels.· Singapore’s base oils exports to India show signs of improving to more typical levels over month to mid-Oct 2024 but show little sign of larger-than-usual flows.· Any significant pick-up in arbitrage shipments from US shows little sign of materializing any time soon.· Dynamic could leave domestic demand outpacing supply..· CFR India Group II heavy-grade premium to FOB NE Asia prices extends rise in Oct 2024, recovering from discount to FOB prices in most of Q3 2024..· Discounted price cut incentive for overseas suppliers to move more heavy-grade shipments to India.· India’s Group II heavy-grade base oils imports duly fall in Sept 2024 to second-lowest level in fifteen months..· Recent recovery in CFR India heavy-grade price differential suggests the drop in supply may have been overdone and exceeded any slowdown in demand.· Heavy-grade imports likely to stay lower in Oct 2024 because of plant maintenance work in South Korea..· India’s imports of very-light grade base oils rise to 30-month high in Sept 2024..· Jump in imports follows rise in India’s retail diesel premium to CFR India N70 price in Sept 2024 to highest level in more than two years..· India’s demand for very-light grade base oils has tendency to rise when diesel premium to N70 widens..S Korea's Sept exports to India fall.India Sept Group II imports hold steady.India’s Sept v light-grade imports rise.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 Oct