· Asia’s base oils demand could face more marked pressure as expectations of softer supply-demand fundamentals coincide with concern about economic slowdown and impact of US tariffs.· Uncertainty about timing, size and impact of US tariffs adds to blenders’ incentive to maintain lower stocks.· High base oils prices relative to feedstock and gasoil prices and relative to other regions add to incentive to hold back.· High price differentials reflect tight supply and strong demand fundamentals in first few months of 2025.· Price differentials remain elevated even with signs of easing supply tightness of some grades..· China’s base oils demand for overseas supplies could get support during round of plant maintenance in the country.· Likely seasonal slowdown in lube demand later in Q2 2025 could be sharper than usual as China-US trade tariffs dampen economic activity.· Slowdown in demand and completion of plant maintenance work could trigger steeper fall in requirements for overseas supplies.· China’s domestic Group I brightstock, Group II light grades, and Group III base oils prices weaken relative to FOB Asia prices..· Weakening price differentials complicate arbitrage.· Simultaneous price-weakness of growing number of products could point to more widespread slowdown. .· Base oils demand in southeast Asia shows signs of slowing even ahead of this month’s US tariff announcements and fall in crude oil prices.· South Korea’s base oils exports to southeast Asia stay lower than usual in March 2025, contrasting with surge in shipments to India..· Lower exports coincides with sharp slowdown in shipments from Singapore to southeast Asia in recent weeks..· Shipment volumes ease even with blenders likely facing low inventories after seasonal rise in demand in month of March.· Slowdown in shipments points to less urgency among blenders in southeast Asia to replenish lower stocks.· Lower crude oil prices and concern about slower regional economic growth could now add to blenders’ preference to maintain lower stocks.· Singapore’s steadier base oils exports to India and China over past four weeks coincide with plant-maintenance work in both countries..· India’s demand for Group II base oils could be more muted in Q2 2025 as firm import volumes in March 2025 cushion impact of strong lube demand that month.· India’s Group II base oils imports hold relatively firm in March 2025 even as they slip from previous two months..· Relatively firm imports point to limited impact from Group II plant maintenance work in South Korea.· Imports likely to hold firm in April 2025 after South Korea’s base oils exports to India rise to seven-month in March 2025..· Any rise in flows from South Korea would likely coincide with arrival of arbitrage shipments from US, and signs of pick-up in flows from Saudi Arabia.· Rise in imports in March-April 2025 could leave blenders with healthy inventories.· Higher stocks would coincide with recent dip in crude and diesel prices in April 2025.· Higher stocks and lower crude oil prices could complicate blenders’ subsequent procurement plans amid concern about impacting value of existing inventories..· CFR India Group II heavy-grade premium to FOB Asia cargo price holds at firmer levels in April 2025..· CFR Group II premium holds firmer even with high imports of heavy-grade base oils in March 2025, including of Group II supplies..· Dynamic points to unusually firm demand for heavy-grade base oils.· CFR Group II premium extends rise even as Group II heavy grades account for dwindling share of India’s heavy-grade base oils imports in March 2025..· Dwindling share suggests buyers are seeking to use more Group I supplies in place of Group II base oils.· Unusually wide gap between CFR India Group I and Group II heavy-grade base oils incentivizes such a move..· That price dynamic starts to reverse in H2 Apr 2025.· Reversal could continue over coming weeks amid prospect of tighter Group I heavy-grade supplies and improving availability of Group II heavy grades..· India’s demand for very-light-grade base oils could get support as lower crude oil prices widen their discount to domestic retail diesel prices.· India’s CFR N70 price discount to domestic retail diesel prices tends to follow similar trend to crude oil discount to retail diesel prices..· Wider retail diesel premium to CFR N70 prices often coincides with firmer demand for very-light grade base oils. .· Pakistan’s base oils supply holds firm in three months to Feb 2025, pointing to sustained pick-up in demand..· Pakistan’s Group II heavy-grade base oils imports rise more than 50% in Feb 2025 from previous month, lagging the more-than-100% rise in country’s total imports.· Group II heavy grades as share of Pakistan’s total imports duly slump in response..· Smaller rise in Group II heavy-grade imports could point to rising consumption boosting demand for other grades more than Group II heavy grades.· Smaller rise in Group II heavy-grade imports could reflect tight availability of the product in Asia.· Tighter availability in Asia contrasts with signs of persistently-healthy availability of heavy grades in US.· US’ share of Pakistan’s Group II heavy-imports rises in Feb 2025, reflecting that dynamic..India’s March base oils imports rise.India’s March Group II imports slip.S Korea’s March base oils exports fall
· Asia’s base oils demand could face more marked pressure as expectations of softer supply-demand fundamentals coincide with concern about economic slowdown and impact of US tariffs.· Uncertainty about timing, size and impact of US tariffs adds to blenders’ incentive to maintain lower stocks.· High base oils prices relative to feedstock and gasoil prices and relative to other regions add to incentive to hold back.· High price differentials reflect tight supply and strong demand fundamentals in first few months of 2025.· Price differentials remain elevated even with signs of easing supply tightness of some grades..· China’s base oils demand for overseas supplies could get support during round of plant maintenance in the country.· Likely seasonal slowdown in lube demand later in Q2 2025 could be sharper than usual as China-US trade tariffs dampen economic activity.· Slowdown in demand and completion of plant maintenance work could trigger steeper fall in requirements for overseas supplies.· China’s domestic Group I brightstock, Group II light grades, and Group III base oils prices weaken relative to FOB Asia prices..· Weakening price differentials complicate arbitrage.· Simultaneous price-weakness of growing number of products could point to more widespread slowdown. .· Base oils demand in southeast Asia shows signs of slowing even ahead of this month’s US tariff announcements and fall in crude oil prices.· South Korea’s base oils exports to southeast Asia stay lower than usual in March 2025, contrasting with surge in shipments to India..· Lower exports coincides with sharp slowdown in shipments from Singapore to southeast Asia in recent weeks..· Shipment volumes ease even with blenders likely facing low inventories after seasonal rise in demand in month of March.· Slowdown in shipments points to less urgency among blenders in southeast Asia to replenish lower stocks.· Lower crude oil prices and concern about slower regional economic growth could now add to blenders’ preference to maintain lower stocks.· Singapore’s steadier base oils exports to India and China over past four weeks coincide with plant-maintenance work in both countries..· India’s demand for Group II base oils could be more muted in Q2 2025 as firm import volumes in March 2025 cushion impact of strong lube demand that month.· India’s Group II base oils imports hold relatively firm in March 2025 even as they slip from previous two months..· Relatively firm imports point to limited impact from Group II plant maintenance work in South Korea.· Imports likely to hold firm in April 2025 after South Korea’s base oils exports to India rise to seven-month in March 2025..· Any rise in flows from South Korea would likely coincide with arrival of arbitrage shipments from US, and signs of pick-up in flows from Saudi Arabia.· Rise in imports in March-April 2025 could leave blenders with healthy inventories.· Higher stocks would coincide with recent dip in crude and diesel prices in April 2025.· Higher stocks and lower crude oil prices could complicate blenders’ subsequent procurement plans amid concern about impacting value of existing inventories..· CFR India Group II heavy-grade premium to FOB Asia cargo price holds at firmer levels in April 2025..· CFR Group II premium holds firmer even with high imports of heavy-grade base oils in March 2025, including of Group II supplies..· Dynamic points to unusually firm demand for heavy-grade base oils.· CFR Group II premium extends rise even as Group II heavy grades account for dwindling share of India’s heavy-grade base oils imports in March 2025..· Dwindling share suggests buyers are seeking to use more Group I supplies in place of Group II base oils.· Unusually wide gap between CFR India Group I and Group II heavy-grade base oils incentivizes such a move..· That price dynamic starts to reverse in H2 Apr 2025.· Reversal could continue over coming weeks amid prospect of tighter Group I heavy-grade supplies and improving availability of Group II heavy grades..· India’s demand for very-light-grade base oils could get support as lower crude oil prices widen their discount to domestic retail diesel prices.· India’s CFR N70 price discount to domestic retail diesel prices tends to follow similar trend to crude oil discount to retail diesel prices..· Wider retail diesel premium to CFR N70 prices often coincides with firmer demand for very-light grade base oils. .· Pakistan’s base oils supply holds firm in three months to Feb 2025, pointing to sustained pick-up in demand..· Pakistan’s Group II heavy-grade base oils imports rise more than 50% in Feb 2025 from previous month, lagging the more-than-100% rise in country’s total imports.· Group II heavy grades as share of Pakistan’s total imports duly slump in response..· Smaller rise in Group II heavy-grade imports could point to rising consumption boosting demand for other grades more than Group II heavy grades.· Smaller rise in Group II heavy-grade imports could reflect tight availability of the product in Asia.· Tighter availability in Asia contrasts with signs of persistently-healthy availability of heavy grades in US.· US’ share of Pakistan’s Group II heavy-imports rises in Feb 2025, reflecting that dynamic..India’s March base oils imports rise.India’s March Group II imports slip.S Korea’s March base oils exports fall
