· Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay lower over coming weeks as weak consumption cuts requirements.· Prospect of rise in supply surplus, combined with still-firm base oils prices, add to incentive to hold back..· Seasonal slowdown in Asia’s lube demand at year-end likely to extend into early next year before consumption revives from month of February.· Demand likely slows in Nov-Dec 2024 from Oct 2024, when regional consumption rose to four-month high..· Regional demand growth in Oct 2024 remains reliant on ongoing rise in consumption in India.· That reliance would magnify regional impact of any slowdown in demand in India. · Growth stays more mixed in other regions like southeast Asia, where consumption edges up by 1% in Oct 2024..· Rebound in Asia base oils exports to SE Asia in Oct 2024 matches regional lube demand..· Steady or higher exports to southeast Asia through rest of Q4 2024 would likely coincide with drop in lube demand.· Trend would trigger build-up of surplus supplies in southeast Asia unless more shipments move to more distant markets instead..· There are some signs of such a pick-up in shipments to markets beyond southeast Asia.· Taiwan’s base oils exports to southeast Asia slump in Nov 2024 to second-lowest level this year.· Slump in shipments contrasts with surge in Taiwan’s exports to UAE to two-year high in Nov 2024..· Rise in shipments to UAE points to insufficient buying interest in key markets like southeast Asia..· Taiwan also faces competition from South Korea and Singapore for key outlets in southeast Asia.· South Korea’s share of Philippines’ base oils imports exceeds Singapore’s share in Oct 2024 for first time in four months..· Philippines imports same volume from both markets in Jan-Oct 2024, after importing more from South Korea in 2023.· Prospect of rise in India’s self-sufficiency of base oils supply over coming year boosts importance of outlets like Philippines..· Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia stay lower over last four weeks, adding to signs of more muted demand in the region..· Lower exports contrast with rebound in shipments to China and India, where demand is likely to stay steadier..· China’s base oils demand likely to stay rangebound at lower levels over coming weeks.· Buyers’ low stocks require more frequent moves to top up inventories, supporting more regular demand.· Shutdown of domestic Group II base oils unit from H2 Nov 2024 coincides with rebound in Taiwan’s exports to China in Nov 2024..· Pick-up in shipments to China points to signs of still-regular flows this year and ongoing requirements for supplies from Taiwan.· Pick-up in shipments follows slide in China’s domestic price for imported Group II base oils relative to prices for domestic supplies since June 2024..· Slump in premium makes prices more competitive relative to supplies from domestic refiners, adds to attraction of procuring more supplies from Taiwan.· More competitive price at lower level conversely adds to incentive for Taiwan to redirect more shipments to other markets instead.· China’s domestic Group II N500 premium to FOB NE Asia price rises to highest since Q1 2023..· Surge in premium contrasts with steady, lower N150 premium to FOB NE Asia price.· Surge in premium makes arbitrage more feasible, points to need for additional supplies from overseas markets to meet demand..· India’s base oils demand shows signs of holding steady to cover immediate requirements rather than to build larger stocks.· Taiwan’s base oils exports to India rise to four-month high in Nov 2024..· Even larger volume of exports move to UAE, pointing to insufficient buying interest in India for additional supplies.· India’s buying interest stays muted even amid signs that any arbitrage shipments from the US could remain smaller and arrive later than expected.· India’s base oils imports hold firm in Nov 2024, even with dearth of arbitrage shipments from US. .· Trend highlights India’s sufficient supplies and lack of need for additional shipments from US even if arbitrage flows lag expectations.· India likely to be key outlet for expected rise in surplus supply in Asia-Pacific market in Q4 2024 and early 2025.· Such a dynamic curbs further buyers’ need for additional supplies from US.· India's buying interest stays muted even with India’s domestic lube consumption continuing to rise in Nov 2024..· Rising lube demand sustains buyers’ requirements for regular base oils supplies.· Muted buying interest for additional base oils cargoes points to expectations of sufficient supply even with smaller or later arbitrage volumes from other markets.· Muted buying interest and lower stocks give buyers leverage to lock in additional supplies if they deem prices to be at more competitive levels..India’s November base oils imports rise.India’s November lube demand rises.Taiwan’s Nov base oils exports rise
· Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay lower over coming weeks as weak consumption cuts requirements.· Prospect of rise in supply surplus, combined with still-firm base oils prices, add to incentive to hold back..· Seasonal slowdown in Asia’s lube demand at year-end likely to extend into early next year before consumption revives from month of February.· Demand likely slows in Nov-Dec 2024 from Oct 2024, when regional consumption rose to four-month high..· Regional demand growth in Oct 2024 remains reliant on ongoing rise in consumption in India.· That reliance would magnify regional impact of any slowdown in demand in India. · Growth stays more mixed in other regions like southeast Asia, where consumption edges up by 1% in Oct 2024..· Rebound in Asia base oils exports to SE Asia in Oct 2024 matches regional lube demand..· Steady or higher exports to southeast Asia through rest of Q4 2024 would likely coincide with drop in lube demand.· Trend would trigger build-up of surplus supplies in southeast Asia unless more shipments move to more distant markets instead..· There are some signs of such a pick-up in shipments to markets beyond southeast Asia.· Taiwan’s base oils exports to southeast Asia slump in Nov 2024 to second-lowest level this year.· Slump in shipments contrasts with surge in Taiwan’s exports to UAE to two-year high in Nov 2024..· Rise in shipments to UAE points to insufficient buying interest in key markets like southeast Asia..· Taiwan also faces competition from South Korea and Singapore for key outlets in southeast Asia.· South Korea’s share of Philippines’ base oils imports exceeds Singapore’s share in Oct 2024 for first time in four months..· Philippines imports same volume from both markets in Jan-Oct 2024, after importing more from South Korea in 2023.· Prospect of rise in India’s self-sufficiency of base oils supply over coming year boosts importance of outlets like Philippines..· Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia stay lower over last four weeks, adding to signs of more muted demand in the region..· Lower exports contrast with rebound in shipments to China and India, where demand is likely to stay steadier..· China’s base oils demand likely to stay rangebound at lower levels over coming weeks.· Buyers’ low stocks require more frequent moves to top up inventories, supporting more regular demand.· Shutdown of domestic Group II base oils unit from H2 Nov 2024 coincides with rebound in Taiwan’s exports to China in Nov 2024..· Pick-up in shipments to China points to signs of still-regular flows this year and ongoing requirements for supplies from Taiwan.· Pick-up in shipments follows slide in China’s domestic price for imported Group II base oils relative to prices for domestic supplies since June 2024..· Slump in premium makes prices more competitive relative to supplies from domestic refiners, adds to attraction of procuring more supplies from Taiwan.· More competitive price at lower level conversely adds to incentive for Taiwan to redirect more shipments to other markets instead.· China’s domestic Group II N500 premium to FOB NE Asia price rises to highest since Q1 2023..· Surge in premium contrasts with steady, lower N150 premium to FOB NE Asia price.· Surge in premium makes arbitrage more feasible, points to need for additional supplies from overseas markets to meet demand..· India’s base oils demand shows signs of holding steady to cover immediate requirements rather than to build larger stocks.· Taiwan’s base oils exports to India rise to four-month high in Nov 2024..· Even larger volume of exports move to UAE, pointing to insufficient buying interest in India for additional supplies.· India’s buying interest stays muted even amid signs that any arbitrage shipments from the US could remain smaller and arrive later than expected.· India’s base oils imports hold firm in Nov 2024, even with dearth of arbitrage shipments from US. .· Trend highlights India’s sufficient supplies and lack of need for additional shipments from US even if arbitrage flows lag expectations.· India likely to be key outlet for expected rise in surplus supply in Asia-Pacific market in Q4 2024 and early 2025.· Such a dynamic curbs further buyers’ need for additional supplies from US.· India's buying interest stays muted even with India’s domestic lube consumption continuing to rise in Nov 2024..· Rising lube demand sustains buyers’ requirements for regular base oils supplies.· Muted buying interest for additional base oils cargoes points to expectations of sufficient supply even with smaller or later arbitrage volumes from other markets.· Muted buying interest and lower stocks give buyers leverage to lock in additional supplies if they deem prices to be at more competitive levels..India’s November base oils imports rise.India’s November lube demand rises.Taiwan’s Nov base oils exports rise
