· Asia’s base oils demand could get support from signs of steady requirements in markets like southeast Asia and India.· Regional demand could get additional support from blenders’ balanced-to-tight stocks in some markets.· Balanced-to-tight-stocks would boost need for regular replenishment supplies.· Signs that Asia-Pacific region avoided large build-up of surplus supplies in most markets during Q3 2025 curbs prospect of significant price-adjustment to help to clear the volumes.· Prospect of steadier prices incentivizes blenders to maintain regular procurement plans.· Smaller-than-usual build-up of surplus supplies partly reflects Asia’s unexpectedly firm lube demand in July 2025..· Firm demand leaves blenders with lower stocks heading into month of August, when consumption typically falls.· Lower stocks duly curb impact of expected slowdown in demand in month of August.· Stronger lube demand in India in Aug 2025 suggests Asia’s consumption could have stayed firmer than expected in that month as well.· Such a scenario would curb further any build-up of surplus supplies during Q3 2025..· Demand in southeast Asia could get support from signs of balanced-to-tighter stocks.· Southeast Asia’s lube demand falls in July 2025 for first time in four months..· Asia’s base oils exports to southeast Asia still lag that demand for third straight month..· Supply-shortfall could leave blenders with lower stocks, boosting need to seek top-up volumes.· Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia surge in past week, especially to Vietnam.· Rise in shipments triggers jump in Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia over past four weeks..· Surge in shipments could reflect pick-up in demand for replenishment supplies..· China’s base oils demand could face pressure if finished lube consumption lags expectations.· Weaker consumption could leave blenders with replenished inventories lasting longer.· Firm base oils margins, high domestic output and more feasible arbitrage to China in recent weeks support rise in supply to add to those inventories.· Weaker consumption could prompt some of those factors to reverse in coming weeks.· China’s domestic price for imported Group II N150 base oils extends gradual rise vs FOB Asia cargo price that began at start of 2025..· Rising premium sustains incentive for overseas suppliers in markets like Taiwan to line up more shipments to move to China.· Rising premium coincides with sustained slowdown in shipments from Taiwan to China so far this year..· Rising price-premium could reflect subsequent supply-tightness and need to attract additional shipments.· More feasible arbitrage contrasts with ongoing slowdown in Singapore’s base oils exports to China in recent weeks..· Slowdown could point to dip in requirements from term buyers..· India’s lube demand rises for second straight month in Aug 2025 from year earlier..· Typical seasonal rise in demand over coming months could get further boost from expected pick-up in consumer demand, including auto sales, following India’s move to cut its consumption tax.· India's firm lube demand contrasts with signs of sharp slowdown in base oils imports in Aug 2025, compounding pressure on blenders’ stocks.· Lower-than-expected stocks raise prospect of ongoing buying interest in additional shipments from overseas markets.· India’s imported Group II cargo prices maintain firm premium to FOB Asia and FOB US prices in H1 Sept 2025..· Firm price-premium facilitates shipment of more arbitrage cargoes to India, reflecting that ongoing demand for additional supplies.· Another shipment loads from Brazil in Aug 2025 before heading to India, illustrating ongoing demand for more arbitrage cargoes.· Firm demand for more arbitrage shipments coincides with signs of pick-up in demand from term buyers.· Singapore’s base oils exports to India extend rise over past four weeks after falling sharply during month to mid-Aug 2025..· Term buyers likely account for large portion of Singapore’s shipments to India..India’s August lube demand rises.Asia’s July lube demand rises.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 8 September.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
