· Asia’s base oils demand likely to get support ahead of seasonal rise in lube consumption in month of March.· Steady-to-higher prices and round of plant maintenance work in Asia add to incentive to lock in sufficient supplies..· Demand in China shows signs of staying more muted than usual at time of year when its requirements typically peak in preparation for spring oil-change season.· More muted demand in China could free up more supplies for other markets.· Sustained fall in China’s domestic Group II N150 premium to Shandong diesel prices points to weaker-than-usual demand for the time of year.· Premium of China’s domestic Group II N150 over FOB Asia cargo price extends slide..· Falling premium points to weaker demand for additional supplies from overseas markets, at time of year when imports typically peak.· Premium of domestic Group I brightstock over FOB Asia cargo price stays lower than usual for time of year, despite China’s structural shortage of the product..· Lower-than-usual demand for additional overseas volumes of brightstock frees up more supplies for other markets..· Demand in southeast Asia likely to hold firm even with pick-up in shipments to the region.· Singapore’s base oils exports rebound to southeast Asia, China and India last week, triggering surge in four-week exports to those markets..· Rebound in shipments could reflect revival in demand for replenishment supplies ahead of seasonal rise in consumption at end-Q1 2025.· Rebound in shipments could reflect revival in demand to balance out more limited volumes from other sources during and ahead of widespread round of plant maintenance work in Asia..· South Korea’s base oils exports to southeast Asia rebound in Jan 2025, even as shipments to other markets extend slide..· Rise in shipments points to pick-up in exports to southeast Asia from Asia’s largest suppliers..· Rise in shipments adds to signs of stock-replenishment in southeast Asia ahead of expected tightening of market fundamentals later in Q1 2025..· Singapore’s average bunker fuel sales per vessel fall in Jan 2025 for second month from year-earlier levels to lowest since late-2023..· Slowdown in bunker fuel sales likely triggers similar dip in marine lube sales, and the base oils used to produce marine lubricants..· India’s demand for base oils from less regular sources likely to get support from sustained slowdown in South Korea’s exports to the country..· Slowdown likely to continue at least through Q1 2025 as plant maintenance in South Korea cuts supply..· India also faces prospect of slowdown in shipments from Saudi Arabia after dip in exports from Yanbu and Jeddah in Jan 2025..· Simultaneous dip in shipments from two of India’s main suppliers would increase pressure to line up additional shipments from other sources.· Surge in India’s imports of Group I and Group II heavy grades in Jan 2025 partly reflects buyers’ success in locking in supplies from other sources like US and Iraq..· Tighter availability in Asia increases importance of sustaining flow of supplies from other sources.· Premium of CFR India Group II heavy-grade price over US export prices widens in Feb 2025, facilitating additional arbitrage opportunities from that market..· Premium of CFR India Group II heavy grades over FOB Asia prices also widens in Feb 2025, after slumping in Jan 2025..· Wider premium points to more limited availability of heavy grades from other sources and need to secure more supplies from Asia.· Premium stays well below year-earlier levels, leaving arbitrage hard to work..S Korea Jan base oils exports to UAE fall.Saudi Arabia Jan Yanbu/Jeddah base oils exports fall.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 17 Feb
