Asia’s lube demand was mixed in November, with an ongoing rise in consumption in India balancing out weaker demand in northeast and southeast Asia.More muted demand coincided with a rebound in the region’s base oils supply following the completion of plant maintenance work in several key markets.Asia’s surplus supply rebounded in response.The region’s total lube consumption of more than 780,000 tonnes in November edged up slightly from year-earlier levels, government and industry data showed.It held at a similar level during the previous two months.The volume excluded China.The steady consumption masked a fall in demand in southeast Asia for a fourth month from year-earlier levels.Demand in northeast Asia also fell, slipping for the third time in four months amid a prolonged dip in consumption in Japan.India’s lube consumption by contrast rose in November for the seventh time in eight months.The dynamic increased the importance of India’s lube consumption holding firm to limit the size of any build-up of surplus base oils supplies in Asia at year-end and at the start of this year.That surplus already rebounded in November following a recovery in Asia’s base oils supply to a four-month high of more than 960,000 tonnes.The rise in surplus supply mirrored a typical trend at year-end, with a seasonal dip in consumption in the month of December usually compounding the supply-build.Asia’s Group I and Group II base oils prices were more mixed during the final weeks of last year even with the rise in surplus supply.Group I and Group II light-grade prices faced more downward pressure on an outright basis and relative to gasoil.Heavier-grade prices were relatively firmer.Their more muted downward price pressure coincided with signs of still-balanced-to-tight supplies in South Korea and Japan following plant maintenance work in those markets.Scant arbitrage shipments from the US to India in the fourth quarter of last year also curbed the volume of additional supplies from other regions.Any extension of that trend into the start of this year, combined with firm consumption in India especially, would help to limit the size of any supply-build..Thailand’s Nov base oils demand rises.India’s November lube demand rises.South Korea’s Nov base oils output rises.Japan’s Nov supply exceeds demand.Base Oil News stories and analyses also available on the ICIS platform
