· Asia’s base oils prices extend fall vs gasoil prices, with Group II heavy-grade differentials slipping to lowest since start of Q3 2024..· Ongoing squeeze on base oils margins increases importance for refiners to maintain balanced-to-tight supplies to boost their leverage to adjust prices accordingly.· Weaker margins and importance of balanced supplies boost incentive for refiners to adjust output accordingly.· Lack of any such moves, combined with light round of scheduled plant-maintenance, structural rise in supply and seasonal slowdown in demand, could trigger rise in surplus volumes.· Any such development would trim further any leverage for refiners to adjust prices to support firmer margins.· Signs of steady-to-lower shipments from several key regional sources in recent weeks could point to some such moves to adjust supply.· Any such moves would follow signs of pick-up in Asia’s base oils supply in Sept 2025.· Any moves to adjust output are more likely to impact light grades than heavy grades in view of still-wide price-gap between the two grades..· Any such moves to trim light-grade output could add to signs of already-tighter availability of those supplies in recent months..· Singapore’s base oils exports show signs of staying lower in Oct 2025 than in Sept 2025..· Exports stay lower over last four weeks even after start-up of new Group II unit in Singapore in Sept 2025.· Lower exports could suggest unit has yet to reach full capacity.· Taiwan’s base oils shipments extend slowdown in H2 Oct 2025, raising prospect of drop in monthly exports vs recent months.· Saudi Arabia’s base oils exports also show signs of staying lower in Oct 2025, ahead of plant-maintenance in Nov-Dec 2025..· South Korea’s base oils output falls to three-month low in Sept 2025 even as it stays relatively high..· Lower output and higher exports flip South Korea’s recent supply-surplus to shortfall in Sept 2025..· Lack of any scheduled plant-maintenance work in South Korea over coming months means refiners would need to rely on same dynamic to keep stocks balanced.· Same dynamic would rely on exports staying at more elevated levels, and regional demand holding at levels that were able to absorb those high exports.· Demand for base oils shipments from South Korea could get boost from any slowdown in supplies from other key sources.· Without any such slowdown, regional buyers could struggle to absorb high exports from South Korea.· Weaker demand and recent pressure on base oils margins instead boost incentive for refiners to cut output accordingly..· India’s base oils output holds firm in Sept 2025..· Output still lags domestic lube demand by largest volume in three months..· Dynamic highlights India’s growing reliance on imports to meet shortfall.· Dynamic highlights India’s growing importance as outlet for overseas base oils supplies.· Dynamic highlights likely widespread impact of any slowdown in India’s import-requirements when start-up of new production capacity narrows the shortfall between output and demand..· Asia’s premium-grade base oils imports from Middle East rise to six-month high in Sept 2025..· Rise in imports reflects recovery in Group III base oils supply in Middle East after sharp dip in shipments during five months to Aug 2025 because of plant-maintenance.· Global Group III base oils prices trend firmer relative to other grades during that period. .India’s September base oils supply shortfall narrows.Singapore exports to China extend rise in October.Singapore exports more base oils than S Korea to SE Asia in Q3 .Asia's premium-grade imports from Middle East rise in September.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 27 October
