· Asia’s base oils prices surge relative to feedstock and gasoil prices.· Surge in margins include light-grade base oils, for which supply is more readily available.· Increasingly high margins and closed arbitrage to other markets by contrast points to tight supply.· Asia’s base oils supply likely to stay tighter than usual early in Q2 2025, especially for Group I base oils, amid ongoing and additional plant maintenance work.· Even so, supply-demand tightness likely peaked in Q1 2025, especially in month of March, with availability gradually improving during Q2 2025..· Easing supply tightness would coincide with likely seasonal slowdown in demand from end-Q2 2025.· Any slowdown in demand that is steeper than expected would speed up pick-up in surplus supply.· Still-closed arbitrage to markets like Americas would further speed up recovery in supply..· Taiwan’s base oils exports stay high so far in April 2025, with heavy grades accounting for more than half the volume.· Singapore’s weekly base oils exports stay lower, extending drop in shipments over last four weeks to lowest level in almost two months..· Any extended slowdown in shipments would cushion impact of expected pick-up in supplies from South Korea in coming weeks following completion of plant maintenance work..· China’s base oils supply rises to five-month high in March 2025..· Rising supply covers for seasonal rise in demand, facilitates moves to boost stocks ahead of round of domestic plant maintenance work at end-Q1 2025 and during Q2 2025.· Premium-grade base oils account for more than 85% of China’s paraffinic base oils output in March 2025..· Rising premium-grade base oils share cushions impact of planned or unexpected supply-disruptions.· Dwindling Group I base oils share of output conversely magnifies impact of any change in Group I supply..· US base oils/lube exports to India rise to twenty-month high in Feb 2025..· Shipments likely to reach India at start of Q2 2025.· Shipments would help to cover for drop in domestic and regional supply because of plant maintenance work.· Shipments would help to replenish blenders’ depleted stocks at start of Q2 2025, curbing urgency to seek additional volumes.· Shipment of additional arbitrage cargoes from US to India could face complications from expected recovery in supply in Asia, as well as recent market volatility..· India’s base oils supply already shows signs of getting boost from strong rise in imports in March 2025, including wave of shipments from Middle East.· High import volumes would limit size of Indian blenders’ supply-shortfall in March 2025, curbing their urgency to replenish stocks at start of Q2 2025..Asia’s February lube demand rises.China’s March base oils output rises.US’ February base oils exports rise.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April
· Asia’s base oils prices surge relative to feedstock and gasoil prices.· Surge in margins include light-grade base oils, for which supply is more readily available.· Increasingly high margins and closed arbitrage to other markets by contrast points to tight supply.· Asia’s base oils supply likely to stay tighter than usual early in Q2 2025, especially for Group I base oils, amid ongoing and additional plant maintenance work.· Even so, supply-demand tightness likely peaked in Q1 2025, especially in month of March, with availability gradually improving during Q2 2025..· Easing supply tightness would coincide with likely seasonal slowdown in demand from end-Q2 2025.· Any slowdown in demand that is steeper than expected would speed up pick-up in surplus supply.· Still-closed arbitrage to markets like Americas would further speed up recovery in supply..· Taiwan’s base oils exports stay high so far in April 2025, with heavy grades accounting for more than half the volume.· Singapore’s weekly base oils exports stay lower, extending drop in shipments over last four weeks to lowest level in almost two months..· Any extended slowdown in shipments would cushion impact of expected pick-up in supplies from South Korea in coming weeks following completion of plant maintenance work..· China’s base oils supply rises to five-month high in March 2025..· Rising supply covers for seasonal rise in demand, facilitates moves to boost stocks ahead of round of domestic plant maintenance work at end-Q1 2025 and during Q2 2025.· Premium-grade base oils account for more than 85% of China’s paraffinic base oils output in March 2025..· Rising premium-grade base oils share cushions impact of planned or unexpected supply-disruptions.· Dwindling Group I base oils share of output conversely magnifies impact of any change in Group I supply..· US base oils/lube exports to India rise to twenty-month high in Feb 2025..· Shipments likely to reach India at start of Q2 2025.· Shipments would help to cover for drop in domestic and regional supply because of plant maintenance work.· Shipments would help to replenish blenders’ depleted stocks at start of Q2 2025, curbing urgency to seek additional volumes.· Shipment of additional arbitrage cargoes from US to India could face complications from expected recovery in supply in Asia, as well as recent market volatility..· India’s base oils supply already shows signs of getting boost from strong rise in imports in March 2025, including wave of shipments from Middle East.· High import volumes would limit size of Indian blenders’ supply-shortfall in March 2025, curbing their urgency to replenish stocks at start of Q2 2025..Asia’s February lube demand rises.China’s March base oils output rises.US’ February base oils exports rise.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April
