· China’s mixed economic recovery raises prospect of more gradual pick-up in base oils demand.· China’s car sales show signs of improving in 2H March vs 1H March.· China’s more gradual pick-up in base oils demand incentivizes regional refiners to continue to focus on sales to other markets and to manage expectations for China.· Steady base oils flows to other markets like India suggest regional refiners are following such a strategy, reinforcing signs of muted recovery in Chinese demand. · Singapore’s base oils shipments in recent weeks show rise in supplies to markets like southeast Asia and drop in supplies to China..· Thailand’s surge in base oil exports to China in February likely consisted mostly of bright stock.· Rise in supplies from sources like Thailand, and weaker domestic bright stock price in China, suggests country’s requirements are covered for now.· Taiwan likely to need to line up alternative sources of Group I supplies amid signs of slowdown in shipments from Japan..· Drop in shipments from Japan to markets like Taiwan likely to become more frequent as its domestic output falls.· Blenders in southeast Asia likely to face little urgency to procure additional supplies amid healthy stock levels and expectations that supply to remain readily available.· India pauses on additional interest-rate increases – adding to signs of more widespread regional pause in rate increases.· India’s March car sales rise for eighth month.· India’s car sales growth forecast to slow sharply over coming financial year starting in April as higher prices and regulatory changes curb demand.· India’s March base oils imports show signs of staying at low levels, at time of year when lube demand typically peaks.· India’s demand for very-light grades likely to hold steady amid expectations prices will hold steady or rise, and amid still-wide retail diesel premium to light-grade prices..Americas/EMEA base oils - week of Apr 10: Demand outlook
