· Asia’s base oils prices stay unusually firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, pointing to tight supply-demand fundamentals.· Regional supply likely slips in Sept 2024 from previous month even as firm margins incentivize refiners to boost base oils output.· Supplies more likely to remain within the region as arbitrage to Americas gets harder to work.· Any additional shipments from other regions to Asia likely to reflect term rather than arbitrage cargoes, with arb still shut from US and Europe.· Taiwan’s base oils exports show signs of falling in Sept 2024 from previous two months, reverting to more typical levels.· Japan’s base oils exports likely face more pressure in Sept 2024 as seasonal pick-up in domestic demand coincides with ongoing plant shutdown and lower structural production capacity..· Singapore’s base oils exports over last four weeks extend recovery to highest level since end-July 2024..· Rise in exports helps to cushion prospect of slowdown in shipments from South Korea over coming weeks because of plant maintenance work..· Singapore continues to take delivery of more shipments from less regular sources in Sept 2024.· Singapore’s base oils imports rise to one-year high in Aug 2024 mostly because of surge in such flows from less regular sources..· Shipments include Group I base oils, although volumes are insufficient to balance out loss of supplies from Japan this year..· China’s base oils exports fall in Aug 2024 for second time in three months from year-earlier levels..· China’s base oils exports fall by more than 55% in three months to Aug 2024 from year-earlier levels, even with rise in country’s base oils output.· Fall in exports points to drop in surplus supply to clear, insinuating stock-building or firmer demand.· Drop in exports could reflect combination of firmer demand and stock-building, ahead of closure of Group I plant in Oct 2024.· Drop in exports tightens further the availability of Group I base oils in Asia-Pacific market..· India’s base oils output rises in Aug 2024 from previous month following completion of maintenance work..· Impact of rise in unit’s additional production capacity unlikely to be felt until early next year..· Asia’s imports of premium-grade base oils from Qatar stay lower than usual for second month in Aug 2024..· Any extension of a drop in shipments from Qatar to other key outlets of Europe and US in Aug 2024 would be unusual.· Drop in shipments to Asia in Aug 2024 coincides with rise in China’s Group III base oils output and dip in region’s Group III prices relative to prices in Europe..China’s August base oils imports rise.Singapore’s Aug base oils imports rise.Global premium-grade imports from Middle East fall in July.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 Sept
