· Asia’s base oils supply likely to remain at levels that avoid any significant supply-build of premium grades amid plant-maintenance work, steady flows from Singapore.· Supply could get boost from pick-up in cargo flows from US as sellers in that market eye alternative outlets in response to likely slowdown in shipments to Mexico.· Asia’s Group I base oils supply set to tighten following permanent closure of Group I unit in Japan.· Fall in regional Group I supply could trigger pick-up in shipments from Europe to cover shortfall..· Singapore’s base oils imports from China rebound through October after sharp slowdown in September..· Pick-up in shipments points to rise in surplus supplies in China.· Rise in surplus supplies in China points to domestic demand that remains insufficient to consume the supplies.· Rise in supplies points to demand that is too low to raise domestic prices to keep the supplies in China.· Singapore takes delivery last week of first cargo from Italy in more than two years.· Singapore’s imports from Europe previously typically rose during and to cover for plant maintenance work in the island-state.· Shipment from Italy follows recent closure of Group I plant in Japan.· Plant closure could trigger more regular flow of Group I shipments from Europe to cover for some of the loss of supplies..· Singapore’s September base oils imports from US rise to two-year high..· Supplies from US rise for second month, suggesting a structural change that has caused the pick-up in shipments.· Trend extends into October..· Global Group III base oils imports from UAE rise in August to seven-month high..· Supplies to Asia rise even amid sharp slowdown in shipments to China.· Trend instead reflects rise in shipments to India.· India’s growing Group III base oils demand provides attractive alternative outlet to balance out slowdown in Chinese demand.· Prospect of rise in India’s Group III base oils production capacity over coming months could magnify impact of China’s more muted demand unless US/Europe demand rises strongly..· India faces prospect of pick-up in cargo volumes from Asia reaching the country in October after exports from key suppliers rise to five-month high in September..· India’s supplies likely get further boost in October from arrival of shipment of very-light grades from Spain and more shipments from Saudi Arabia.· India could start to receive more offers of supplies of US origin, after arbitrage from that market closed in recent months.· Rise in Asia’s shipments to India in Sept 2023 contrasts with slowdown in flows to China.· Surplus of Asia supplies to India over supplies to China rises to highest in fourteen months..· Trend extends pattern of growing share of Asia supplies moving to India, and shrinking share to China..Global base oils - week of Oct 30: Price outlook - margins
· Asia’s base oils supply likely to remain at levels that avoid any significant supply-build of premium grades amid plant-maintenance work, steady flows from Singapore.· Supply could get boost from pick-up in cargo flows from US as sellers in that market eye alternative outlets in response to likely slowdown in shipments to Mexico.· Asia’s Group I base oils supply set to tighten following permanent closure of Group I unit in Japan.· Fall in regional Group I supply could trigger pick-up in shipments from Europe to cover shortfall..· Singapore’s base oils imports from China rebound through October after sharp slowdown in September..· Pick-up in shipments points to rise in surplus supplies in China.· Rise in surplus supplies in China points to domestic demand that remains insufficient to consume the supplies.· Rise in supplies points to demand that is too low to raise domestic prices to keep the supplies in China.· Singapore takes delivery last week of first cargo from Italy in more than two years.· Singapore’s imports from Europe previously typically rose during and to cover for plant maintenance work in the island-state.· Shipment from Italy follows recent closure of Group I plant in Japan.· Plant closure could trigger more regular flow of Group I shipments from Europe to cover for some of the loss of supplies..· Singapore’s September base oils imports from US rise to two-year high..· Supplies from US rise for second month, suggesting a structural change that has caused the pick-up in shipments.· Trend extends into October..· Global Group III base oils imports from UAE rise in August to seven-month high..· Supplies to Asia rise even amid sharp slowdown in shipments to China.· Trend instead reflects rise in shipments to India.· India’s growing Group III base oils demand provides attractive alternative outlet to balance out slowdown in Chinese demand.· Prospect of rise in India’s Group III base oils production capacity over coming months could magnify impact of China’s more muted demand unless US/Europe demand rises strongly..· India faces prospect of pick-up in cargo volumes from Asia reaching the country in October after exports from key suppliers rise to five-month high in September..· India’s supplies likely get further boost in October from arrival of shipment of very-light grades from Spain and more shipments from Saudi Arabia.· India could start to receive more offers of supplies of US origin, after arbitrage from that market closed in recent months.· Rise in Asia’s shipments to India in Sept 2023 contrasts with slowdown in flows to China.· Surplus of Asia supplies to India over supplies to China rises to highest in fourteen months..· Trend extends pattern of growing share of Asia supplies moving to India, and shrinking share to China..Global base oils - week of Oct 30: Price outlook - margins
