· Asia’s base oils price premium to feedstock/gasoil prices stays high, especially for heavy grades.· Base oils premium set to get further boost from fall in crude oil prices at start of this week.· Firm base oils premium points to still-tight supply-demand fundamentals.· Asia’s base oils supply should start to improve in coming weeks as regional plant maintenance draws to a close.· Market faces time-lag between end of plant maintenance work, resumption of normal production and subsequent delivery of larger volumes to overseas markets..· Arbitrage to move cargoes from Asia to markets like Americas gets harder to work..· Less feasible arbitrage likely to keep more supplies within Asia-Pacific region.· Arbitrage to move cargoes from US to markets like India gets more feasible, especially for heavy grades, and especially if US prices extend their steady fall.· Southeast Asia continues to take delivery of additional shipments from Europe, despite closed arbitrage.· Additional shipments partially cushion impact of dip in Asia-Pacific exports to southeast Asia in Aug-Sept 2024..· Singapore’s base oils imports get boost in Sept 2024 from sustained pick-up in shipments from Europe and US.· Rise in shipments boosts Europe/US share of Singapore’s imports to 32% of total imports in Q3 2024, up from 27% share in Q2 2024 and 13% share in 2023..· Rise in shipments shows signs of extending through Oct 2024, especially for supplies from Europe, keeping import volumes higher than usual..· Singapore’s base oils exports over last four weeks fall more sharply..· Drop in shipments raises prospect of fall in Singapore’s total exports in Oct 2024.· Any such slowdown would compound region’s tighter supply at start of Q4 2024 because of plant maintenance work..· China’s base oils exports rise to five-month high in Sept 2024, with unusually large volume moving to South Korea..· Unusual shipment points to tighter-than-usual supply in South Korea.· Shipment to South Korea coincides with plant maintenance in the country as well as extended plant maintenance work in Japan.· South Korea is largest market for Japan’s base oils exports.· South Korea’s base oils output and exports likely to recover in Nov 2024 following completion of plant maintenance work.· Recovery in output could curb its requirements for supplies from markets like China.· Taiwan’s base oils exports show signs of rising strongly in Oct 2024 vs Sept 2024.· Most of Taiwan's shipments continue to move to markets like southeast Asia rather than to China..China’s September base oils imports fall.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 Oct
· Asia’s base oils price premium to feedstock/gasoil prices stays high, especially for heavy grades.· Base oils premium set to get further boost from fall in crude oil prices at start of this week.· Firm base oils premium points to still-tight supply-demand fundamentals.· Asia’s base oils supply should start to improve in coming weeks as regional plant maintenance draws to a close.· Market faces time-lag between end of plant maintenance work, resumption of normal production and subsequent delivery of larger volumes to overseas markets..· Arbitrage to move cargoes from Asia to markets like Americas gets harder to work..· Less feasible arbitrage likely to keep more supplies within Asia-Pacific region.· Arbitrage to move cargoes from US to markets like India gets more feasible, especially for heavy grades, and especially if US prices extend their steady fall.· Southeast Asia continues to take delivery of additional shipments from Europe, despite closed arbitrage.· Additional shipments partially cushion impact of dip in Asia-Pacific exports to southeast Asia in Aug-Sept 2024..· Singapore’s base oils imports get boost in Sept 2024 from sustained pick-up in shipments from Europe and US.· Rise in shipments boosts Europe/US share of Singapore’s imports to 32% of total imports in Q3 2024, up from 27% share in Q2 2024 and 13% share in 2023..· Rise in shipments shows signs of extending through Oct 2024, especially for supplies from Europe, keeping import volumes higher than usual..· Singapore’s base oils exports over last four weeks fall more sharply..· Drop in shipments raises prospect of fall in Singapore’s total exports in Oct 2024.· Any such slowdown would compound region’s tighter supply at start of Q4 2024 because of plant maintenance work..· China’s base oils exports rise to five-month high in Sept 2024, with unusually large volume moving to South Korea..· Unusual shipment points to tighter-than-usual supply in South Korea.· Shipment to South Korea coincides with plant maintenance in the country as well as extended plant maintenance work in Japan.· South Korea is largest market for Japan’s base oils exports.· South Korea’s base oils output and exports likely to recover in Nov 2024 following completion of plant maintenance work.· Recovery in output could curb its requirements for supplies from markets like China.· Taiwan’s base oils exports show signs of rising strongly in Oct 2024 vs Sept 2024.· Most of Taiwan's shipments continue to move to markets like southeast Asia rather than to China..China’s September base oils imports fall.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 Oct