· Asia base oils prices rebound vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.· Persistently-high base oils margins point to firm supply-demand fundamentals, sustain incentive for refiners to raise or maintain higher output.· Regional supply-demand balance likely stays tight in Oct 2024, could start to improve from Nov 2024.· Signs of pick-up in shipments from Asia to UAE in Sept-Oct 2024 could further tighten regional availability. · Less feasible arbitrage to Americas likely to curb flows from Asia to that market..· Supply could get further boost from signs of increasingly steady flows from Europe to Asia.· Taiwan’s base oils exports in Oct 2024 likely to exceed shipment volumes in Sept 2024.· Pace of Taiwan’s exports slows in H2 Oct 2024 after surge in shipments in H1 Oct 2024.· Most of Taiwan’s shipments move to southeast Asia rather than China so far in Oct 2024..· Singapore’s base oils exports over past four weeks continue to hold steady at more typical levels..· Singapore’s base oils supply gets boost from arrival of wave of shipments from Europe and Russia in Oct 2024..· Increasingly regular flow of shipments from Europe to Singapore contrasts with signs of slowdown in shipments from US.· Flow of shipments from Europe likely include Group I base oils, for which southeast Asia is short, and Group II base oils, for which regional supply is more readily available.· Arrival of second large cargo from Russia in less than two months points to pick-up in pace of such shipments to Singapore in H2 2024..· South Korea’s base oils exports fall in Sept 2024 to lowest since at least 2010 as plant maintenance begins..· Size of slump in shipments forces buyers to tap stocks or to seek supplies from alternative sources instead.· Slump in shipments cuts Asia’s supply availability that already tightened in Aug 2024.· Tight availability helps region to avoid typical clear-out of surplus supplies at end of third quarter.· Lack of such arbitrage shipments removes opportunity for buyers in markets like India and Middle East to build up stocks at competitive price levels..· Saudi Arabia’s base oils exports show signs of holding firm this month after already staying at higher levels in Aug-Sept 2024..· Firm export volumes could provide buyers in India and UAE with key source of supplies at a time when availability from Asia is tighter..South Korea’s Sept base oils exports fall.Saudi Arabia’s Sept Yanbu/Jeddah exports hold firm.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 Oct
· Asia base oils prices rebound vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.· Persistently-high base oils margins point to firm supply-demand fundamentals, sustain incentive for refiners to raise or maintain higher output.· Regional supply-demand balance likely stays tight in Oct 2024, could start to improve from Nov 2024.· Signs of pick-up in shipments from Asia to UAE in Sept-Oct 2024 could further tighten regional availability. · Less feasible arbitrage to Americas likely to curb flows from Asia to that market..· Supply could get further boost from signs of increasingly steady flows from Europe to Asia.· Taiwan’s base oils exports in Oct 2024 likely to exceed shipment volumes in Sept 2024.· Pace of Taiwan’s exports slows in H2 Oct 2024 after surge in shipments in H1 Oct 2024.· Most of Taiwan’s shipments move to southeast Asia rather than China so far in Oct 2024..· Singapore’s base oils exports over past four weeks continue to hold steady at more typical levels..· Singapore’s base oils supply gets boost from arrival of wave of shipments from Europe and Russia in Oct 2024..· Increasingly regular flow of shipments from Europe to Singapore contrasts with signs of slowdown in shipments from US.· Flow of shipments from Europe likely include Group I base oils, for which southeast Asia is short, and Group II base oils, for which regional supply is more readily available.· Arrival of second large cargo from Russia in less than two months points to pick-up in pace of such shipments to Singapore in H2 2024..· South Korea’s base oils exports fall in Sept 2024 to lowest since at least 2010 as plant maintenance begins..· Size of slump in shipments forces buyers to tap stocks or to seek supplies from alternative sources instead.· Slump in shipments cuts Asia’s supply availability that already tightened in Aug 2024.· Tight availability helps region to avoid typical clear-out of surplus supplies at end of third quarter.· Lack of such arbitrage shipments removes opportunity for buyers in markets like India and Middle East to build up stocks at competitive price levels..· Saudi Arabia’s base oils exports show signs of holding firm this month after already staying at higher levels in Aug-Sept 2024..· Firm export volumes could provide buyers in India and UAE with key source of supplies at a time when availability from Asia is tighter..South Korea’s Sept base oils exports fall.Saudi Arabia’s Sept Yanbu/Jeddah exports hold firm.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 Oct