· Asia’s base oils prices stay high relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices even as they edge lower.· Firm margins point to tight supply-demand fundamentals.· Margins hold firm even with demand fundamentals showing signs of easing and some plant maintenance work drawing to a close.· Any improvement in supply would boost importance of arbitrage outlets to place surplus volumes.· Asia’s Group II light-grade price-discount to US export prices widens in H2 Apr 2025 after mostly narrowing in since Sept 2024..· Narrower discount to US prices complicates arbitrage flows since then.· Shipment from South Korea to Brazil in March 2025 points to ongoing flows to Americas.· Shipment suggests some arbitrage cargoes were already lined up to move to Americas in Q1 2025 at price levels that made arb workable.· Any further widening of Asia Group II N150 price-discount to US export prices could trigger more frequently flow of shipments to Americas.· Any such flows would help to balance out tighter availability of Group II light grades in US market..· Taiwan's base oils exports likely be higher than usual in April 2025 amid regular flow of shipments so far this month.· Heavy-grade base oils account for more than half the April volume.· Singapore’s weekly base oils exports to mid-April 2025 rise to one-month high.· Exports over past four weeks still fall to lowest in more than two months..· Slowdown in shipments points more to reversion to more typical export volumes.· Surge in exports in Feb-March 2025 was more unusual and coincided with seasonal rise in demand, as well as plant maintenance work in markets like South Korea..· South Korea’s base oils exports fall in March 2025 as plant maintenance cuts supply..· Even lower exports in Dec 2024-Jan 2025 added to tight regional fundamentals, supporting firm base oils prices.· Lower exports in March 2025 could have more muted impact on regional fundamentals amid seasonal slowdown in demand and completion of plant-maintenance work at start of Q2 2025..· Asia’s Group I base oils supply could stay tighter because of recent, ongoing and upcoming plant maintenance in Asia, Middle East and Europe.· Steady flows from Europe to southeast Asia see slowdown over past month, with most recent shipment from UK or Italy reaching Singapore more than a month ago..· Slowdown in shipments coincides with plant-maintenance in Italy and tight Group I supply in Europe.· Slowdown shows signs of extending at least into May 2025..· India’s base oils imports rise to ten-month high in March 2025..· Higher imports partially balance out impact of higher demand in March 2025.· Imports stay high even during round of plant maintenance work in South Korea and drop in arbitrage shipments from US.· Imports could continue to hold firm in April 2025 amid pick-up in arbitrage flows from US and signs of still-high volumes from South Korea..· South Korea’s base oils exports to India rise to seven-month high in March 2025 even as its total exports fall..· High exports suggest plant maintenance work in South Korea has limited impact on shipments to India.· High exports likely to boost India’s supply at start of Q2 2025..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April.S Korea's March exports to India rise.S Korea’s March base oils exports fall
· Asia’s base oils prices stay high relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices even as they edge lower.· Firm margins point to tight supply-demand fundamentals.· Margins hold firm even with demand fundamentals showing signs of easing and some plant maintenance work drawing to a close.· Any improvement in supply would boost importance of arbitrage outlets to place surplus volumes.· Asia’s Group II light-grade price-discount to US export prices widens in H2 Apr 2025 after mostly narrowing in since Sept 2024..· Narrower discount to US prices complicates arbitrage flows since then.· Shipment from South Korea to Brazil in March 2025 points to ongoing flows to Americas.· Shipment suggests some arbitrage cargoes were already lined up to move to Americas in Q1 2025 at price levels that made arb workable.· Any further widening of Asia Group II N150 price-discount to US export prices could trigger more frequently flow of shipments to Americas.· Any such flows would help to balance out tighter availability of Group II light grades in US market..· Taiwan's base oils exports likely be higher than usual in April 2025 amid regular flow of shipments so far this month.· Heavy-grade base oils account for more than half the April volume.· Singapore’s weekly base oils exports to mid-April 2025 rise to one-month high.· Exports over past four weeks still fall to lowest in more than two months..· Slowdown in shipments points more to reversion to more typical export volumes.· Surge in exports in Feb-March 2025 was more unusual and coincided with seasonal rise in demand, as well as plant maintenance work in markets like South Korea..· South Korea’s base oils exports fall in March 2025 as plant maintenance cuts supply..· Even lower exports in Dec 2024-Jan 2025 added to tight regional fundamentals, supporting firm base oils prices.· Lower exports in March 2025 could have more muted impact on regional fundamentals amid seasonal slowdown in demand and completion of plant-maintenance work at start of Q2 2025..· Asia’s Group I base oils supply could stay tighter because of recent, ongoing and upcoming plant maintenance in Asia, Middle East and Europe.· Steady flows from Europe to southeast Asia see slowdown over past month, with most recent shipment from UK or Italy reaching Singapore more than a month ago..· Slowdown in shipments coincides with plant-maintenance in Italy and tight Group I supply in Europe.· Slowdown shows signs of extending at least into May 2025..· India’s base oils imports rise to ten-month high in March 2025..· Higher imports partially balance out impact of higher demand in March 2025.· Imports stay high even during round of plant maintenance work in South Korea and drop in arbitrage shipments from US.· Imports could continue to hold firm in April 2025 amid pick-up in arbitrage flows from US and signs of still-high volumes from South Korea..· South Korea’s base oils exports to India rise to seven-month high in March 2025 even as its total exports fall..· High exports suggest plant maintenance work in South Korea has limited impact on shipments to India.· High exports likely to boost India’s supply at start of Q2 2025..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April.S Korea's March exports to India rise.S Korea’s March base oils exports fall
