· Asia’s base oils prices hold firm versus Singapore gasoil prices.· Firm base oil margins so far in Q3 2025 point to fundamentals that remain sufficiently balanced and that curb need for lower output levels.· Firm margins coincide with signs of relatively steady base oils output in early-Q3 2025 even after completion of most plant-maintenance work.· Steady output coincides with signs of firmer-than-expected demand in early-Q3 2025, limiting pace of build-up of surplus supplies.· Suppliers still faced challenge of managing impact of typical seasonal slowdown in demand in month of August.· Even so, smaller surplus at outset better enables them to manage seasonal dip in demand.· Seasonal rise in demand at end-Q3 could further facilitate moves to manage supply-surplus.· Arbitrage from Asia to Americas stays hard to work..· More limited arbitrage opportunities add to signs of supply-demand fundamentals that remain relatively balanced.· Even so, steady base oils output, combined with any signs of more muted seasonal rise in demand in coming weeks, could extend pick-up in surplus supplies.· Scenario would increase importance of other moves to maintain balanced fundamentals, such as adjustments to output levels..· Taiwan’s base oils exports extend strong pick-up in late-Aug 2025 after lull in mid-month.· Rise in shipments leaves total exports at high levels that are similar to recent months.· Singapore’s base oils exports show signs of staying lower than usual in Aug 2025 for second month..· Lower exports coincide with start-up of new base oils unit in the island-state.· Lower exports partially cushion impact of seasonal slowdown in regional demand in month of August.· Singapore’s base oils supply gets boost from strong pick-up in shipments from Europe in Aug 2025..· Rise in imports from Europe contrasts slowdown in shipments from US so far in Q3 2025.· Slowdown in shipments from US contrasts with surge in imports from US and Europe in Q2 2025..· Japan’s base oils exports fall to multi-year low in July 2025..· Exports fall as domestic output barely manages to cover domestic demand..· Sustained fall in Japan’s base oils exports leave total shipments increasingly similar to export-volumes from China..· Converging export volumes highlight contrasting trends between Japan and China’s base oils production capacity.· Japan’s base oils stocks extend fall in July 2025 even with drop in exports..· Dynamic highlights fall in exports because of tighter supply.· Dynamic contrasts with South Korea’s fall in exports despite rising supply..· South Korea’s base oils output rises to one-year high in July 2025..· South Korea’s exports stay lower in July 2025 as strong domestic demand and round of stock-replenishment absorb more domestic supply.· Those factors likely to have less impact on supply at least in Aug 2025.· Prospect of steady or higher base oils output could then trigger rise in exports.· Steady or higher output and still-low exports could conversely point to growing build-up of additional stocks..· India’s base oils output rises to four-month high in July 2025..· Shortfall of domestic output vs India’s lube demand still widens in July 2025..· Widening shortfall highlights India’s growing reliance on imports to cover demand.· Expected start-up of new domestic base oils production capacity in coming months would help to cut shortfall, trimming requirements for imports.· Large supply-shortfall and India’s growing demand raises prospect of ongoing reliance on large volume of imports to cover domestic requirements..· Base oils shipments from Saudi Arabia’s ports of Yanbu/Jeddah fall to one-year-low in July 2025..· Drop in exports compounds signs of dip in shipments to India amid slowdown in flows from Iran, as well as fall in Asia’s exports to India in July 2025.· Base oils shipments from Yanbu/Jeddah could stay lower than usual in coming months ahead of and during planned plant-shutdown in Q4 2025..India’s July base oils supply outpaces demand.Saudi Arabia’s July Yanbu/Jeddah base oils exports fall.Japan’s July base oils exports fall.South Korea’s July base oils output rises.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 1 September.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
