· China’s Shandong diesel premium to crude oil falls, boosting attraction of increasing output of other products like base oils..· China’s diesel consumption likely to slow down during rainy season in southern China and during the fishing ban period.· China’s weak domestic prices relative to regional base oils prices point to sufficient domestic supply.· India’s retail diesel premium to crude oil extends rise – incentivizing refiners to maintain high run-rates.· Asia’s Q2 2023 supply set to fall from Q1 levels amid plant maintenance work throughout region.· Asia’s base oils maintenance work set to peak in May-June.· Regional demand slows sharply in Q2 vs Q1, cushioning impact of tighter supply.· High base oils values vs diesel add to slowdown in demand.· Lower output likely to be sufficient to meet lower Asia-Pacific demand.· Asia’s Q1 2023 base oils supply more than matches regional rise in demand..· Asia’s large base oils export volumes in Q1 2023 likely leave regional blenders with surplus stocks, curbing further their requirements in Q2 2023.· Asia base oils premium to diesel rises strongly in March despite surplus – suggesting demand was key determinant supporting prices.· Trend suggests weaker demand could pressure Asia prices in Q2 2023 even as supply falls.· Lower output would coincide with more limited surplus availability from Europe, leaving buyers in markets like Mideast Gulf and Africa to target supplies from other sources.· Japan’s base oils exports likely to be lower in Q2 2023 after March base oils exports rise to five-month high.· Any sustained drop in supply would impact Singapore, which has absorbed unusually large volumes from Japan over the past year.· Slump in Indonesia’s Group III base oils exports in March, and pause in shipments to Europe, raises prospect of tightening further Europe’s Group III supply in May-June..· Fall in shipments comes ahead of planned shutdown of Group III plants in Spain and in South Korea during Q2 2023. Both plants are key sources of Group III supplies for Europe.· Persistently-low Group III base oils exports from Indonesia since start of 2H 2022 suggest other factors rather than plant maintenance work behind the drop in supply.· Thailand’s base oils imports from Japan stay low in March for seventh month, contrasting with large volumes in first eight months of 2022 – pointing to new structural trend.· Indonesia’s shrinking Group I base oils exports increasingly make Thailand the key supplier of spot shipments of Group I base oils in Asia-Pacific..Asia base oils - week of May 15: Demand outlook.Contact us for more information about the data for this story
· China’s Shandong diesel premium to crude oil falls, boosting attraction of increasing output of other products like base oils..· China’s diesel consumption likely to slow down during rainy season in southern China and during the fishing ban period.· China’s weak domestic prices relative to regional base oils prices point to sufficient domestic supply.· India’s retail diesel premium to crude oil extends rise – incentivizing refiners to maintain high run-rates.· Asia’s Q2 2023 supply set to fall from Q1 levels amid plant maintenance work throughout region.· Asia’s base oils maintenance work set to peak in May-June.· Regional demand slows sharply in Q2 vs Q1, cushioning impact of tighter supply.· High base oils values vs diesel add to slowdown in demand.· Lower output likely to be sufficient to meet lower Asia-Pacific demand.· Asia’s Q1 2023 base oils supply more than matches regional rise in demand..· Asia’s large base oils export volumes in Q1 2023 likely leave regional blenders with surplus stocks, curbing further their requirements in Q2 2023.· Asia base oils premium to diesel rises strongly in March despite surplus – suggesting demand was key determinant supporting prices.· Trend suggests weaker demand could pressure Asia prices in Q2 2023 even as supply falls.· Lower output would coincide with more limited surplus availability from Europe, leaving buyers in markets like Mideast Gulf and Africa to target supplies from other sources.· Japan’s base oils exports likely to be lower in Q2 2023 after March base oils exports rise to five-month high.· Any sustained drop in supply would impact Singapore, which has absorbed unusually large volumes from Japan over the past year.· Slump in Indonesia’s Group III base oils exports in March, and pause in shipments to Europe, raises prospect of tightening further Europe’s Group III supply in May-June..· Fall in shipments comes ahead of planned shutdown of Group III plants in Spain and in South Korea during Q2 2023. Both plants are key sources of Group III supplies for Europe.· Persistently-low Group III base oils exports from Indonesia since start of 2H 2022 suggest other factors rather than plant maintenance work behind the drop in supply.· Thailand’s base oils imports from Japan stay low in March for seventh month, contrasting with large volumes in first eight months of 2022 – pointing to new structural trend.· Indonesia’s shrinking Group I base oils exports increasingly make Thailand the key supplier of spot shipments of Group I base oils in Asia-Pacific..Asia base oils - week of May 15: Demand outlook.Contact us for more information about the data for this story
