· Asia’s Group I/Group II heavy-grade prices hold firm vs feedstock/gasoil prices, especially for the time of year.· Firm margins point to tighter supply-demand fundamentals ahead of and during round of plant maintenance work.· Supply tightness likely to peak in month of March, when lower regional production coincides with seasonal rise in demand.· Blenders more reliant on spot volumes for larger share of their requirements likely to face higher impact of tighter supply.· Lower-than-usual flow of arbitrage shipments from US and Europe to Asia this year contrasts with signs of higher-than-usual flow of term shipments from those markets to Asia.· Sustained rise in Singapore’s base oils exports over past month coincide with high export volumes from Taiwan.· Rising shipments from those markets help to cushion impact of slowdown in exports from South Korea in Jan 2025 and likely extension of that slowdown at least to early-Q2 2025..· Singapore’s weekly base oils exports surge last week to highest level since Aug 2023.· Rising shipments lift total exports over past four weeks to highest since July 2024..· Supply in southeast Asia gets further boost from arrival in past week of shipments from US, Saudi Arabia and Russia to Singapore.· Most of the supplies likely consist of Group I base oils.· Shipment from US is second this year, following pause in such flows during Q4 2024.· Shipment from Russia extends sharp pick-up in flows from that source in past two months..· Rise in shipments from sources like Russia support revival in Singapore’s Group I base oils imports, following slump in shipments in H1 2024..· Recovery extends into Jan 2025 and first three weeks of Feb 2025..· Recovery in imports eases southeast Asia’s tight supply of Group I base oils.· Origin of imports suggests most of the supplies cover term commitments rather than reflect arbitrage flows. .· Singapore’s base oils imports from China slump from Nov 2024, with slowdown extending into first three weeks of Feb 2025..· Slide in shipments from Nov 2024 follows closure of major Group I plant in China in Oct 2024.· Extension of fall in shipments into early this year precedes maintenance work on several key base oils units in China.· Slide in shipments forces buyers to line up alternative supplies from other sources.· Taiwan’s base oils exports in Feb 2025 show signs of already exceeding total shipments in all of Jan 2025.· Heavy-grade base oils likely accounts for more than half of Taiwan’s exports in Feb 2025 for second month..· South Korea’s base oils exports fall even lower in Jan 2025..· Unusually low exports curb supply-build in Asia at start of the year.· Unusually low exports curb opportunity for buyers to replenish stocks before market fundamentals tighten later in Q1 2025.· Low exports could reflect refinery stock-building ahead of plant maintenance work.· Such moves would cushion impact of plant maintenance work.· Low exports could reflect lower production in South Korea at end-2024 and early 2025.· Such a scenario would complicate stock-building ahead of plant maintenance work, compounding the impact of the plant shutdown..· Saudi Arabia’s base oils exports slide in Jan 2025, show signs of staying low so far in Feb 2025..· Any extended dip in shipments from Saudi Arabia would put pressure on buyers in Middle East and India to seek supplies from other sources instead..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 24 Feb.Saudi Arabia Jan Yanbu/Jeddah base oils exports fall.S Korea’s January base oils exports fall.Singapore’s Jan base oils imports rise
· Asia’s Group I/Group II heavy-grade prices hold firm vs feedstock/gasoil prices, especially for the time of year.· Firm margins point to tighter supply-demand fundamentals ahead of and during round of plant maintenance work.· Supply tightness likely to peak in month of March, when lower regional production coincides with seasonal rise in demand.· Blenders more reliant on spot volumes for larger share of their requirements likely to face higher impact of tighter supply.· Lower-than-usual flow of arbitrage shipments from US and Europe to Asia this year contrasts with signs of higher-than-usual flow of term shipments from those markets to Asia.· Sustained rise in Singapore’s base oils exports over past month coincide with high export volumes from Taiwan.· Rising shipments from those markets help to cushion impact of slowdown in exports from South Korea in Jan 2025 and likely extension of that slowdown at least to early-Q2 2025..· Singapore’s weekly base oils exports surge last week to highest level since Aug 2023.· Rising shipments lift total exports over past four weeks to highest since July 2024..· Supply in southeast Asia gets further boost from arrival in past week of shipments from US, Saudi Arabia and Russia to Singapore.· Most of the supplies likely consist of Group I base oils.· Shipment from US is second this year, following pause in such flows during Q4 2024.· Shipment from Russia extends sharp pick-up in flows from that source in past two months..· Rise in shipments from sources like Russia support revival in Singapore’s Group I base oils imports, following slump in shipments in H1 2024..· Recovery extends into Jan 2025 and first three weeks of Feb 2025..· Recovery in imports eases southeast Asia’s tight supply of Group I base oils.· Origin of imports suggests most of the supplies cover term commitments rather than reflect arbitrage flows. .· Singapore’s base oils imports from China slump from Nov 2024, with slowdown extending into first three weeks of Feb 2025..· Slide in shipments from Nov 2024 follows closure of major Group I plant in China in Oct 2024.· Extension of fall in shipments into early this year precedes maintenance work on several key base oils units in China.· Slide in shipments forces buyers to line up alternative supplies from other sources.· Taiwan’s base oils exports in Feb 2025 show signs of already exceeding total shipments in all of Jan 2025.· Heavy-grade base oils likely accounts for more than half of Taiwan’s exports in Feb 2025 for second month..· South Korea’s base oils exports fall even lower in Jan 2025..· Unusually low exports curb supply-build in Asia at start of the year.· Unusually low exports curb opportunity for buyers to replenish stocks before market fundamentals tighten later in Q1 2025.· Low exports could reflect refinery stock-building ahead of plant maintenance work.· Such moves would cushion impact of plant maintenance work.· Low exports could reflect lower production in South Korea at end-2024 and early 2025.· Such a scenario would complicate stock-building ahead of plant maintenance work, compounding the impact of the plant shutdown..· Saudi Arabia’s base oils exports slide in Jan 2025, show signs of staying low so far in Feb 2025..· Any extended dip in shipments from Saudi Arabia would put pressure on buyers in Middle East and India to seek supplies from other sources instead..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 24 Feb.Saudi Arabia Jan Yanbu/Jeddah base oils exports fall.S Korea’s January base oils exports fall.Singapore’s Jan base oils imports rise
